JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 6, 10:45 PM EDT
817
FXUS63 KJKL 070245 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1045 PM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather with mild days and cool nights holds through the end
of the work week.
- The next likelihood of rain is not until Sunday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
Did also fine tune the fog forecast and some spot low
temperatures. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD
and web servers along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.
UPDATE Issued at 725 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
23Z sfc analysis shows high pressure off to the east of the state
remains in control of the weather over eastern Kentucky this
evening. This is working to settle the winds and keep skies
clear. Currently, temperatures are running in the low to mid 60s
for most of the area with lower 70s in the southwest and mid 50s
in some of the eastern valleys. Meanwhile, amid light winds,
dewpoints are generally in the low to mid 40s with lower 50s
noted in the some of the valleys. Have updated the forecast mainly
to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These
minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers
along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 356 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
We will remain beneath southern edge of faster west to northwest
flow in the mid-upper levels through the period. With this, features
affecting the area will remain weak but progressive.
Surface high pressure supplying our current dry air mass is centered
near the Mid Atlantic coast and ridging to the upper Ohio Valley
late today. Our flow out of the high is currently from the
northeast to east and is fairly neutral for temperature/moisture
advection. The high will shift eastward well off the coast by
Wednesday night, but with ridging extending into the southeast
CONUS. This will turn our low level flow to the southwest by
Wednesday and lasting into Wednesday night, giving warm/moist
advection. However, significant moisture will still remain tied up
with a front near the Gulf Coast. The departure of the high will
allow a weak cold front to arrive in KY from the NNW by the end of
Wednesday night, but the lack of significant moisture makes
precip improbable.
Dry air, warm air advection, and modest flow should result in
respectable ridge/valley temperature differences by dawn on
Wednesday. Sunshine and warm air advection then result in a warmer
day. A modest increase in moisture may keep ridge/valley differences
a little smaller on Wednesday night ahead of the front.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 356 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
The extended period opens with quiet conditions, fair skies, and
light winds through the remainder of the work week as surface
high pressure remains near eastern Kentucky through Thursday
before starting to shift towards the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on
Friday. This will keep dry weather intact across the region, with
unseasonably warm afternoon highs reaching the upper 70s to lower
80s on both Thursday and Friday. Clear skies and light winds will
favor ridge-valley temperature splits each night. Temperatures
each night should drop into the mid-to-upper 40s in the coldest,
sheltered valleys, while remaining in the lower 50s elsewhere.
A significant pattern shift unfolds over the weekend as an
anomalous upper-level ridge amplifies across the Eastern US,
raising 500 mb heights over the Commonwealth toward 584-588 dam
by Saturday. The vast majority of the JKL CWA will remain warm
and mostly dry through Saturday afternoon, with highs reaching the
upper 70s to lower 80s. However, all eyes remain on a developing
tropical disturbance in the southwestern Gulf (Invest 92L). As
low-level flow turns southerly around the departing high, deep
moisture associated with Invest 92L will begin creeping
northward. PWATs will climb toward 1.0-1.2 inches near the
Tennessee border by Saturday evening, bringing low-end shower and
isolated thunderstorm chances into far southern Kentucky into the
evening and overnight.
As the system lifts northeast through the Lower Mississippi and
Tennessee Valleys, rain is likely across eastern Kentucky through
Sunday afternoon, accompanied by isolated to scattered thunderstorm
chances. Rainfall amounts remain highly uncertain, as there is a
great deal of uncertainty in regards to the strength and
positioning of the system, and how it might interact with an
approaching surface cold front pushed by northern stream energy
passing through the Great Lakes. Broad southwesterly flow aloft
between the Atlantic ridge and western troughing will help channel
the tropical moisture plume from the Gulf low into the Ohio Valley.
This will surge PWAT values across the JKL CWA Sunday morning into
early Sunday afternoon. Forecasted PWATs currently fall within the
90th percentile. However, the latest 12Z GFS guidance has trended
downward for rainfall across the area. PWATs do drop off
noticeably Monday into Tuesday as the primary moisture plume axis
shifts east of the area. As a cold front sags slowly into the
region, shower chances will linger into early next week, though
decreasing moisture efficiency will mitigate the threat for heavy
rainfall after Sunday. Extensive cloud cover and rain will keep
daytime highs in the low-to-mid 70s Sunday and Monday. Height
rises and fair skies will allow temperatures to warm into the
upper 70s Tuesday, while overnight lows cool into the
mid-to-upper 50s throughout the long term period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
Valley fog will affect the JKL forecast area overnight and early
Wednesday, bringing localized IFR or worse conditions. TAF sites
are not expected to be affected. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
prevail through the period amid light and variable winds.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...HAL/GREIF
Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 6, 10:45 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202610070245-KJKL-FXUS63-AFDJKL-AAA)
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