PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 7, 1:05 AM CDT
173
FXUS63 KPAH 070605
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
105 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry conditions are expected through the rest of the work week
along with above normal temperatures in the 80s.
- Confidence is increasing that the remnants of a tropical
system will impact our region over the weekend. Peak timing
for heavy rains has trended slightly faster, primarily focused
in the Saturday evening through Sunday morning time period.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1259 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026
A weak frontal boundary is forecast to sink south towards our region
today, making passage tonight. Models generally depict higher dew
points pooling ahead of the boundary so despite warmer high
temperatures in the low to mid 80s (even upper 80s in our
northwest), minimum RH's are expected to be near or slightly higher
than yesterday (mainly 30-35%). Areas near the KY/TN border have the
best potential to see lower values. Winds will be out of the
southwest today and will be strongest in our north, where deeper
mixing may lead to some gustiness this afternoon.
Behind the frontal passage winds become northeasterly on Thursday.
Despite this, actual high temperatures will remain similar in most
places. Drier air will mix down the column in the afternoon with
some guidance suggesting dew points falling into the upper 30s to
mid 40s across much of the region. Confidence is highest this will
occur in our north so for now have kept these lower values up there
which results in RH's falling into the 20-25% range. Something to
monitor though as potential is there for a good chunk of our cwa to
witness RH's of 25% or lower on Thursday.
Tropical Depression Nine has formed in the southwestern Gulf and
confidence is increasing that this will strengthen and become the
Atlantic Basin's first Hurricane of the 2026 season. This system is
forecast to make landfall somewhere in the vicinity of New Orleans
to Mobile Friday night/early Saturday morning. The rain shield
associated with it should quickly spread north across the TN Valley
during the day on Saturday, potentially reaching southern portions
of our cwa by midday or afternoon. Timing is still somewhat
uncertain, but latest trends have been a bit quicker. So the daytime
hours on Saturday may not end up being completely dry anymore, at
least for the southern half of our area. As pwats increase to 2",
heavier swaths of rain are anticipated Saturday evening into the
night, possibly continuing into the day on Sunday. However, if the
faster solution pans out, the system may be departing leaving behind
mainly dry conditions by Sunday afternoon. We should have a better
handle on timing and exact track within the next 48 hours or so.
For now, best to prepare for an unsettled weekend ahead, with
moderate to heavy rain impacting the region leading to rainfall
totals potentially in the 1-2" range. Can't rule out some localized
higher amounts too that may lead to some flooding potential. If the
center of the weakening tropical system tracks over our cwa, there
could also be an increased concern for some severe thunderstorms
including a few tornadoes. Right now that threat appears highest to
our east, but that could easily shift westward. We also may have
some strong gusty gradient winds to deal with. Currently the GFS is
showing potential at 30-40 mph gusts.
Once the tropical system departs, upper ridging builds back into the
region allowing temperatures to return to above normal readings in
the 80s early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026
Tonight at CGI, impacts (MVFR...possibly IFR) from shallow
river fog are possible again during the 09-13z window.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast with calm winds overnight
becoming W-SW around 4-8 kts after 13z through the rest of the
afternoon.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...DWS
Source: PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 7, 1:05 AM CDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202610070605-KPAH-FXUS63-AFDPAH)
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