CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 6, 3:56 PM EDT
486
FXUS61 KCLE 061956
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
356 PM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast as it remains on track.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures continue through
Sunday. Rain chances return Sunday into Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Mainly dry conditions are expected to continue through the remainder
of the week and beginning of the weekend. High pressure over the
Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes will exit to the east as a cold
front swings southeast across the region Wednesday evening. Most of
the forecast area will remain dry with the frontal passage outside
of low-end PoPs in lake enhanced rain showers across Northwest
Pennsylvania Wednesday night.
Another area of high pressure builds overhead behind the cold front
which will continue the prolonged dry conditions through early
Sunday. By Sunday, a disturbance originating from the Gulf will
move north towards the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys bringing
increased tropical moisture to the region. If the forecasted
track persists, widespread rainfall is expected Sunday into
Monday. Will continue to monitor forecast trends with this
disturbance in the coming days.
High temperature through the period will generally remain in the
upper 60s to lower 70s. Slightly warmer highs possible Wednesday and
Saturday in the mid 70s as a warm front will lift across the
region both days.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
VFR will prevail through the TAF cycle as high pressure drifts
into the Mid Atlantic region. This will allow a warm front to
lift across the area tonight followed by an approaching cold
front by Wednesday afternoon, but only scattered high to mid-
level clouds are expected with the cold front. The main impact
will be increasing winds. Light S to SW winds areawide this
afternoon will allow a lake breeze to impact KCLE and KERI at
times before S to SW winds increase to 5-10 knots tonight and
10-15 knots by Wednesday morning while becoming SW. The SW winds
will gust to 20-25 knots at times late Wednesday morning through
the afternoon.
Outlook...Overall VFR conditions are expected most of this
week.
&&
.MARINE...
Quiet marine conditions under high pressure will come to an end
tonight as southwesterly winds increase to 15-25 knots ahead of
a cold front. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued from The
Islands to Willowick through Wednesday afternoon and from
Willowick to Ripley NY through Wednesday night. Elevated
southwesterly winds persist through Wednesday evening before
winds shift west-northwesterly and decrease to 10-15 knots by
late Wednesday. Choppy conditions may continue into early Thursday
morning across the central basin with wave heights of 2-4 feet
possible before wave heights subside by Thursday afternoon.
Onshore flow 10-15 knots continues through Friday afternoon
before winds shift southerly and remain offshore at 10-15 knots
through the weekend.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM EDT Wednesday for
LEZ144>146.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM EDT Wednesday for
LEZ147>149.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...13
Source: CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 6, 3:56 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202610061956-KCLE-FXUS61-AFDCLE)
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