MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 8, 2:22 PM CDT ...New UPDATE...
872
FXUS64 KMOB 081922 AAA
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
222 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026
...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1218 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026
- Hurricane/Storm Surge Warning in effect for the coast.
Hurricane/Tropical Storm hazard headlines inland.
- Hurricane Isaias continues to strengthen and is forecast to
approach the northern Gulf coast late Friday.
- Increasing concern for significant impacts to the local area
from Isaias including high winds, high surf, rip currents,
storm surge, flash flooding, and tornadoes.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026
Forecasters are seeing a signal that the risk of excessive
flooding rainfall will shift northward as Isaias penetrates inland
into early Saturday AM. The national centers has adjusted a
moderate risk of excessive rainfall northward over interior southwest
Alabama from the previous forecast to account for this. The flash
flood watch has also been expanded northward accordingly. The
duration of the watch remains the same, through Saturday
afternoon. Rains are likely to add up quickly, especially where
bands of rainfall move repeatedly over the same areas and in rain
bands that become detached after Isaias moves inland and begins to
weaken. 4 to 8" of rain is expected over the area with the
potential for localized storm totals of 10 to 15". Flash/urban
flooding, especially those areas that are subject to rapid water
rises in heavy rain due to poor drainage, could be considerable.
This update adds the flash flood watch headlines to public
products over the interior. /10
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026
The near term forecast is dominated by Hurricane Isaias. Isaias is
tracking northeast over the central Gulf and intensifying. A
southern stream upper trof over east Texas picks up Isaias which
continues to lift north northeast over the central Gulf today and
tonight and begins to turn more northward Friday. There continues
to be some differences between the physics based global models and
the AI suites on track, but the solutions still focus on the
northern Gulf coast for landfall. There remains no changes to
track and intensity reasoning. Isaias is expected to approach the
northern Gulf coast late Friday as a dangerous hurricane at time
of landfall. No changes to tropical cyclone watches and warnings.
Increasing swell packets and dangerous large breaking waves and
high surf to begin arriving along area beaches Friday AM. Rip
currents to be dangerous to potentially deadly. Weather continues
to deteriorate going into Friday night as Isaias makes landfall.
Could also see considerable flooding rains in repeated bands
spiraling in off the Gulf with the main concern being focused over
southwest AL, down to the northwest FL Panhandle where a moderate
risk of excessive rains is outlooked. This will especially be
true in any detached rainbands that set up. Considering the
rainfall, several rivers respond by going into flood this weekend.
A few may go into moderate flood stage. Storm surge inundation of
5 to 7' possible and peaking Friday night. Coastal flooding
issues likely to linger into Saturday. Rainband tornadoes also
possible, especially in Isaias's eastern quadrant.
Although Isaias lifts north of the area Saturday, forecasters will
be watching any detached rain bands that will likely continue an
excessive rain threat. Winds will be abating though through the day.
The remnants of Isaias phase with upper trof that ejects northeast
up across the TN/OH River valleys Sunday with dry air expanding
eastward over the deep south. As the upper trof continues to lift
out, it becomes replaced by an upper ridge that amplifies over the
southern U.S. next week. This brings a return to an extended period
of rain-free conditions during the medium range. high temperatures
quickly rise into the mid/upper 80s, with a few locales seeing lower
90's. Low temperatures remaining around 60 well inland to upper
60's/lower 70's near the coast. /10
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026
North of Hurricane Isaias, bands of mid to higher based thickening
cloud cover is gradually spreading northward over the area.
Northeast winds ranging 5 to 15 kts this afternoon will see
occasional higher gusts around 25 kts at times. Northeast winds
strengthen Friday morning 15 to 20 kts with gusts nearing 35 to 40
kts especially closer to the coastal terminals. Rain bands still
remain well offshore out over the central Gulf and will likely not
become a player in the forecast until after 09.12Z at the
earliest. /10
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026
Hurricane Isaias lifts north northeast over the central Gulf today
and tonight and begins to turn more northward Friday. Rain bands
will begin to spread northward tonight over the coastal waters as
Isaias gains latitude. Isaias is expected to approach the northern
Gulf coast late Friday as a dangerous hurricane at time of landfall.
Weather conditions deteriorate and seas become very high at the
as Isaias approaches and moves north across the coastal waters.
/10
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 68 78 64 78 / 0 70 100 40
Pensacola 70 79 69 80 / 10 90 90 40
Destin 71 80 71 82 / 20 90 100 60
Evergreen 63 78 59 81 / 0 60 100 60
Waynesboro 62 81 60 74 / 0 30 100 70
Camden 61 79 58 78 / 0 40 100 70
Crestview 66 75 64 80 / 10 90 100 70
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Tropical Storm Watch for ALZ051.
Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon for
ALZ051>060-261>266.
Tropical Storm Warning for ALZ052>058-060.
Hurricane Watch for ALZ056-060.
Hurricane Warning for ALZ059-261>266.
High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for ALZ265-266.
Storm Surge Warning for ALZ265-266.
High Surf Warning from 7 AM Friday to 10 AM CDT Sunday for
ALZ265-266.
FL...Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon for
FLZ201>206.
Hurricane Warning for FLZ201>206.
High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for FLZ202-204-
206.
Storm Surge Warning for FLZ202-204-206.
High Surf Warning from 7 AM Friday to 10 AM CDT Sunday for
FLZ202-204-206.
MS...Tropical Storm Watch for MSZ067-075-078.
Tropical Storm Warning for MSZ076-079.
GM...Hurricane Warning for GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675.
&&
$$
Source: MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 8, 2:22 PM CDT ...New UPDATE... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202610081922-KMOB-FXUS64-AFDMOB-AAA)
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