PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 5, 11:48 AM CDT
268
FXUS63 KPAH 051648
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1148 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Near-normal temperatures are expected through the middle of
this week, followed by temperatures warming to above normal
late week into the weekend.
- Dry conditions are expected through the workweek, with the
next chance of rain over the weekend mainly across Western
Kentucky.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026
Dry weather continues to be expected through the workweek. A
broad area of high pressure moves through the Ohio River Valley
today and tomorrow, with an upper ridge axis moving through
Tuesday. Highs generally in the 70s are forecast both days with
lows in the upper 40s to near 50. Afterwards, southerly flow
brings in warmer air midweek with highs Wednesday rising to the
80s. A weak, dry boundary Wednesday brings a wind shift but
rising 500mb heights and a subsequent high pressure area moving
through keeps temperatures above normal for the remainder of the
week.
PoPs over the weekend remain fairly steady, around 20-35% south
of the Ohio River Saturday night into Sunday. Models still
differ on the focus for this system, with an upper low over the
Rio Grande and the remnants of a tropical system among possible
contributors. Areas south/southeast of the Quad State will have
higher precipitation potential. Positioning of high pressure
off the Mid-Atlantic will influence how far northwestward in the
Quad State precipitation is able to reach.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1148 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Small
potential continues for patchy ground fog at fields near warm
bodies of water (CGI). Widespread fog appears unlikely.
Moderate northeast winds will become light overnight before
picking back up after sunrise tomorrow with a slightly more
easterly component.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...JGG
Source: PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 5, 11:48 AM CDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202610051648-KPAH-FXUS63-AFDPAH)
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