CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 5, 2:38 PM EDT
163
FXUS61 KCLE 051838
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
238 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major forecast changes needed with this update.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Pleasant fall conditions expected to continue through the
weekend. Patchy fog possible tonight into early Tuesday morning.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A Canadian high pressure will linger over the area through
Tuesday before a weak cold front begins to push east across the
area late Wednesday into Thursday. This frontal boundary is not
expected to result in any precipitation. Ahead of it on
Wednesday, temperatures will climb into the low to mid 70s
before falling back into the upper 60s to low 70s on Friday. Low
temperatures will be quite cool, especially tonight into Tuesday
morning as amplified radiational cooling results in some areas
dropping into the upper 30s especially in the typical cooler
spots. Continue to opt for holding off on a Frost Advisory given
the expected scattered nature. Will continue to monitor
conditions over the next couple hours.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
VFR continues. Winds northwesterly gust 15-25kts through 22Z,
then below 10kts overnight. Tuesday winds southwest less than
10kts, FEW flat cumulus FL040.
Outlook...Overall VFR conditions expected most of this week.
&&
.MARINE...
Gusty northwest winds across the central and eastern basin of
15-20 knots will continue into tonight, resulting in waves of
3-5 feet pushing into the nearshore. These winds are expected to
persist a bit longer than previously forecast, so the Small
Craft Advisory has been extended until 4Z Tuesday. As the high
pressure becomes more dominant over the area, winds will weaken
across Lake Erie to 5-10 knots through Tuesday. Late Tuesday, a
low pressure is expected to move east across Canada, ultimately
moving a cold front east late Wednesday into Thursday. Ahead of
this boundary, increased gradient will result in southwest winds
of 20-25 knots Tuesday night through Wednesday. This will likely
need an additional Small Craft Advisory. As the cold front
pushes east, winds will back to be northwesterly and weaken to
10-15 knots. High pressure returns by the end of the week and
allow variable winds of 5-10 knots.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LEZ146>149.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...26
MARINE...04
Source: CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 5, 2:38 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202610051838-KCLE-FXUS61-AFDCLE)
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