Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #1450 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
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AWUS01 KWNH 050531
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Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1450
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
130 AM EDT Mon Oct 05 2026
Areas affected...southeastern AL into southwestern GA
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 050528Z - 050900Z
SUMMARY...Slow moving areas of heavy rain may result in localized
areas of flash flooding from southeastern AL into southwestern GA
through 09Z. Hourly rainfall values of 1 to 2 inches (locally
higher possible) are expected.
DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from KMXX showed a slow moving cluster
of showers producing heavy rain over southeastern AL at 05Z,
centered roughly 30-50 miles north of Dothan. The cluster was
largely warm-topped with 10.3 micron imagery showing -40 to -50 C
within the coldest cloud tops in the immediate area, containing a
history of hourly rainfall between 1 and 2 inches, but
occasionally exhibiting higher hourly values near 3 inches via
MRMS over Barbour County. The higher rates were embedded within an
axis of anomalous precipitable water represented by 2.1 to 2.3
inches via the 05Z SPC mesoanalysis. The area of heavy rain was
focused just ahead of a low to mid-level vorticity max observed on
shortwave IR imagery and RAP analyses, over southeastern AL.
Locally enhanced low level flow just ahead of the vorticity max
was focusing added convergence along a WSW to ESE boundary that
extended from southern AL into south-central GA.
As te low to mid-level vorticity max edges east over the next
couple of hours, the relatively stronger southerly low level flow
over southeastern AL should shift into southwestern GA, with slow
moving areas of heavy rain following suit over the next 1-2 hours.
Continued hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches (locally higher) is
expected, although waning instability is forecast by the RAP over
the next 4 hours with slightly drier air moving in from the north.
Localized areas of flash flooding will be possible from parts of
southeastern AL into southwestern GA through 09Z.
Otto
...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...MOB...TAE...
ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...
LAT...LON 32458459 32398358 32238327 31788323 31438414
31158571 31228630 31828607 32178580 32368526
Source: Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #1450 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE (https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=1450&yr=2026)
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