LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 3, 1:42 PM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...
312
FXUS63 KLMK 031742
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
142 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Pleasant weekend in store outside of some scattered rain chances
across southern KY later tonight into Sunday. Look for highs in
the 70s.
* Early next week, clear skies and cooler temperatures return with
low temperatures in some areas dropping into the upper 30s to low
40s Monday and Tuesday night.
* Wed-Sat brings a return of the 80s with overnight lows in the
50s; next weekend brings our next chance for rain.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026
The surface cold front has made it into the northern Gulf Coast
states with expansive surface high pressure over the Great Lakes
region. Low clouds and patchy drizzle have cleared somewhat across
our northern half of the CWA, however may still have a few lingering
patches of drizzle across southern KY this morning where low clouds
are hanging in. Otherwise, look for a dry day with a steady NE
surface wind and variable cloudiness depending on your location.
Southern IN and northern KY are more likely to see mostly clear
skies later today, while central and southern KY have a better shot
at more cloud cover. Decided to stick with highs on the lower side
of temperature guidance given the fairly steady NE surface winds
reinforcing cooler air over the region. The better chance at
sunshine across the northern CWA will help offset this a bit, but
still looking for low and mid 70s in most spots. It is possible some
locations don't get out of the 60s.
Will carry some scattered shower chances across southern KY into the
Lake Cumberland region later tonight into Sunday as a shortwave
moves through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region. As this
occurs, it should be able to tap into the northern fringes over the
deeper moisture shield stretching from the western Gulf up through
the mid Atlantic. Overall QPF amounts for our southern counties will
be very light. Otherwise, look for dry conditions across the rest of
the CWA with temperatures reaching the mid 70s. Still will have a
bit of N/NE surface flow which could hurt temp recovery a bit.
Leaned on the lower side of guidance here as well.
Surface high pressure and unremarkable NW flow aloft take back hold
of the area going into Sunday night. Pretty good radiational cooling
conditions expected along with mostly clear skies will allow for
temps dropping into the mid 40s to low 50s across the area.
The upper-level low swings directly to our north Monday into
Tuesday, flattening out our UL trough into a westerly flow aloft.
This should swing our gusty surface winds around from northeasterly
to easterly by the early Tuesday morning hours. We should stay
cooler on Monday and Tuesday as we aren't advecting warmer air from
our south or west, with highs in the lower 70s. Lows remain in the
lower 40s for the majority; however, isolated upper 30s are
possible, especially in a couple of cooler valleys across the CWA.
Tuesday keeps a west to east flow aloft that tracks down to the
surface throughout the day, and winds should weaken as they undergo
the change from easterly to westerly by early Wednesday morning.
Expect warmer highs on Wednesday and Thursday in the low 80s, with
overnight lows in the the upper 40s and low 50s, with the metro
struggling to decouple as much as the rest of the area and therefore
remaining warmer than the rest of the CWA. Saturday evening and
Sunday bring our next chance of rain showers as a tropical moisture
pushes its way north; expect warm and humid highs in the low to mid
80s with overnight lows in the upper 50s and cloud cover before
showers begin on Sunday morning.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 142 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026
VFR conditions currently prevail over SDF, LEX, and HNB as a layer
of lower-level clouds pushes southward through southern Kentucky.
RGA and BWG will be under this layer for the next couple hours with
MVFR ceilings, clearing out after 20z. VFR conditions will continue
across all terminals through 06z before lower cloud cover begins to
redevelop in southern Kentucky. BWG and RGA will lower to MVFR
ceilings, with patchy fog potentially developing near RGA and LEX.
A few light showers could develop in southern Kentucky tomorrow
morning and early afternoon, but confidence was too low to include
in any of the TAFs. 8-10 kt NE winds with brief gusts will continue
through this afternoon before dropping below 6 kt tonight. Winds
tomorrow will be calmer and out of the north at around 4-7 kt.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BJS/JPH
AVIATION...BEN
Source: LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 3, 1:42 PM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202610031742-KLMK-FXUS63-AFDLMK)
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