BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 3, 2:08 PM EDT
149
FXUS61 KBOX 031808
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
208 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Clearing skies and cooler temperatures expected through
Sunday morning.
- Potential for a few scattered showers Sunday night,
generally south of the Mass Pike. A secondary, sharp
temperature drop is then expected for the start of next week
followed by a return to dry, fall-like conditions.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Clearing skies and cooler temperatures expected
through Sunday morning.
A few lingering showers and low clouds this morning through
sunrise as the cold front finally pushes offshore. Already
seeing clear skies across northern CT and western MA, and
expecting those to overspread the rest of southern New England
5-7AM.
Behind the cold front, a rather strong continental high
pressure system builds over the Great Lakes and southern
Ontario. Northwest winds will advect those cooler temperatures
and lower dewpoints into New England, sharply dropping surface
temperatures through the weekend. Today's highs are likely to be
on the order of 10-15 degrees less than yesterday's, with
overnight temps dropping into the low 40s (low 50s on the Cape
and Islands).
KEY MESSAGE 2...Potential for a few scattered showers Sunday
night, generally south of the Mass Pike. A secondary, sharp
temperature drop is then expected for the start of next week
followed by a return to dry, fall-like conditions.
The last few model runs have remained consistent in indicating
a front lifting north off the DelVarMa coast, bringing potential
for more scattered showers to southern New England late Sunday
night into Monday morning. Some uncertainty remains in just how
far north these showers might reach, but highest potential at
this time remains south of the Mass Pike.
A strong high pressure system is then expected to build in
right on the heels of a deep Canadian low, bringing a secondary
shot of even colder air to New England for the start of next
work week. Latest guidance indicates the 540mb line sinking well
into New England, possibly as far south as central MA by early
Tuesday morning. 850mb temperatures likely drop to near or just
below 0C by Tuesday morning. This would support surface highs
near 60 degrees with nighttime lows possibly falling into the
30s through Wednesday.
The high then pushes east by Thursday, marking the return of
drier conditions, southwest flow, and seasonable temperature to
southern New England for the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
18z TAF Update...
This Afternoon and Tonight...High confidence.
VFR. E winds this afternoon 8-12 kt, becoming ENE at less than 6 kt
overnight.
Sunday and Sunday Night...High confidence in trends, moderate
confidence in timing of showers.
VFR through much of Sunday with increasing mid-level clouds.
Ceilings lower to MVFR from southwest to northeast between 22z-02z.
Showers become more widespread Sunday evening and overnight,
reducing visibilities to 3-5SM at times. Ceilings lower to MVFR/IFR
overnight into early Monday morning.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...
Monday through Tuesday: VFR. Breezy.
Tuesday Night through Thursday: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
This Afternoon through Sunday Night...High confidence.
Quiet conditions for the rest of Saturday and the first half of
Sunday. High pressure located near the Great Lakes tracks east-
northeast across northern New England Sunday as weak low pressure
develops near the Mid-Atlantic coast Sunday afternoon, then tracks
northeast toward southern New England Sunday night.
Seas are generally 2-4 feet through much of Sunday, though build to
5+ feet across the outer waters Sunday night. East to northeast
winds are generally 10-15 knots, with gusts increasing to 20-25
knots Sunday night. There is the potential need for a Small Craft
Advisory Sunday night into early Monday morning. As conditions
remain marginal, held off on issuance for now, though an advisory
will be considered in upcoming forecasts.
Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...
Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
Monday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.
Wednesday through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...McMinn
AVIATION...Dooley/Hrencecin
MARINE...Dooley/Hrencecin
Source: BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 3, 2:08 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202610031808-KBOX-FXUS61-AFDBOX)
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