LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 4, 12:36 AM CDT ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
347
FXUS64 KLIX 040536
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1236 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1225 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026
- Widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms will affect the area
through Sunday evening. Additional rainfall totals of 3 to 6
inches with locally higher amounts and some localized flooding
issues are possible, mainly east of I-55 and especially in the
coastal MS counties. Residents should continue to monitor the
forecast for updates regarding this threat. Remember, Turn
Around Don't Drown!
- Tide ranges are decreasing, but coastal flooding is still a
borderline threat for coastal MS. Additionally, heavy rain will
increase water levels, so a Coastal Flood Advisory is in place
for coastal Hancock, Harrison, and Jackson counties through 8 am
this morning. It currently appears water levels will be below
threshold levels Monday morning. However, additional advisories
may be necessary later in the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Wednesday)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026
Shortwaves were noted off the Louisiana coast and over Oklahoma and
Texas this evening. Abundant moisture continued to stream onshore
with the 00z LIX and LCH soundings both reporting precipitable
water values of 2.58 inches, which exceeds the daily maxima. While
much of the area has seen an inch or less of rainfall, localized
heavy rainfall has produced upward of 5 inches in the New Orleans
area, and 1-3 inches in portions of the Mississippi coastal
counties.
With the impulse offshore expected to move across the area overnight
and Sunday, we could still see an additional 3-5 inches of rain
across portions of the area, mainly east of Interstate 55, and
will leave the Flood Watch in place for now. As the frontal system
to the north continues to sag southward, we should start to see
any heavy precipitation taper off Sunday evening.
For Monday through Wednesday, moisture levels fall off, with
precipitable water values falling to the 1.6 to 1.8 inch range. The
frontal boundary should remain far enough offshore that any
significant amounts of precipitation should remain either offshore,
or at worst, over very lower portions of the Louisiana coastal
parishes. A fair amount of sunshine can be expected from about
Interstate 10 northward for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Tide ranges are also diminishing somewhat, and forecast levels
appear to be below thresholds for Sunday night's high tide cycle,
so don't currently plan an additional advisory beyond the current
one. That being said, water levels are forecast to increase again
at midweek and advisories may be necessary then.
Clouds and precipitation will hold high temperatures in the lower
80s today, which may even be ambitious. Monday will moderate a bit,
and then Tuesday-Wednesday could see highs back in the 85-90 degree
range. Only a degree or two between the NBM 50th and 90th percentile
highs for those 2 days, so anything much above 90 will be difficult
to achieve. Overnight lows should range from mid 60s to lower 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026
Troughing will continue along the northern Gulf Coast Wednesday
evening, with the associated frontal boundary well offshore over the
Gulf. A stronger shortwave over west Texas Wednesday into Thursday
should entrain some deeper tropical moisture from the southwest
Gulf that will reach the local area by late Friday. This,
unfortunately, looks to produce another wet weekend across the
area next weekend. While most or all of the area should be dry
Wednesday and Thursday, rain chances will increase for Friday and
Saturday as precipitable water values increase again to nearly
daily max values (2.3 inches). Global models will have some
disagreement about the details this far out, but there's enough
similarity to not back off the PoPs in the forecast.
Midweek temperatures have trended upward a bit and won't rule out a
90 degree high or two on Thursday. Clouds and precipitation may
trend weekend temperatures down a bit from previous runs, closer to
80 than 90.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026
A mix of VFR and IFR ceilings at present should trend to IFR or
lower by sunrise as rain spreads back into the area, with
visibilities deteriorating accordingly. Not much in the way of
thunder during the overnight hours, but that threat will increase
again by mid-morning. Do not expect any significant improvement in
ceilings during the daytime hours, with MVFR at best. SHRA/TSRA will
produce occasional IFR or lower visibilities. Any significant
improvement in conditions will probably not arrive until well
beyond 06z Monday, and maybe not until the daytime hours Monday.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026
A tightening pressure gradient over the coastal waters will form in
response to a developing weak low pressure system in the western
Gulf. Winds will briefly relax to 10 knots or less later today as
a front stalls along the coast. This front is expected to then
slowly push through the waters on Monday and Tuesday. Winds will
turn northeasterly behind the front and increase to 15 to 20
knots as drier air advects over the warm waters. Another low will
form along the front by Wednesday, and this should increase winds
in small craft advisory range of 20 to 25 knots through the end of
the week. Seas will also increase to 5 to 7 feet by Wednesday over
the open waters well offshore and remain at those levels through
the end of the week.
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch through this evening for LAZ039-058-064-070-071-
076>082-087-089>093-098>100.
GM...None.
MS...Flood Watch through this evening for MSZ070-071-077-083>088.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for
MSZ086>088.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW
Source: LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 4, 12:36 AM CDT ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202610040536-KLIX-FXUS64-AFDLIX)
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