PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 2, 7:32 PM EDT
035
FXUS61 KPBZ 022332
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
732 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes to the forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cooler and mainly dry from this weekend into early next
week. Frost is a possibility Tuesday and Wednesday mornings,
mainly northeast of Pittsburgh.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Broad upper troughing looks to persist through
the weekend and into next week, with temperatures returning to
seasonal values for early October. The cooler temperatures will
be reinforced by a shortwave digging through the upper trough on
Sunday. This wave could pull moisture, from the boundary that
becomes diffuse to the south of our region after crossing today,
northward, leading to some possible showers south and east of
Pittsburgh. At this time the probability of more than a few
light showers/sprinkles is fairly low (Prob > 0.05 inches around
30% in the WV ridges). After Sunday, building surface high
pressure looks to keep the region dry for much of the rest of
the week.
One thing to watch will be the potential for frost both Tuesday and
Wednesday mornings to the northeast of Pittsburgh, as well as in the
usual Laurel Highland/northern West Virginia cold spots. The NBM
paints a 50% to 75% chance of low temperatures colder than 37
degrees north of US-422 both mornings - which would be chilly enough
for at least patchy frost given clear and calm overnight conditions.
Temperatures from Wednesday on should build back towards more
seasonal values.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Boundary may stall just south of I-70 with some potential
restrictions at MGW lingering into Saturday morning. For the
other ports, scattering skies and lighter northerly winds could
raise some fog concerns but just enough of both could hamper
widespread fog formation. Although steam fog looks possible,
impacts at ports is low probability and low confidence.
Tomorrow, scattered to mostly clear skies is expected for most with
a northeasterly wind up to 5-10 knots.
Outlook...
The stalled boundary to the south may briefly lift north Sunday
morning bringing the potential for ceiling restrictions at the
southern terminals. Otherwise, VFR is progged outside of any
morning fog.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...34/Milcarek
AVIATION...Lupo/AK
Source: PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 2, 7:32 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202610022332-KPBZ-FXUS61-AFDPBZ)
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