PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 2, 7:10 PM EDT
580
FXUS61 KPBZ 022310
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
710 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes to the forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers will continue through the afternoon/evening with the
cold front passage, but amounts will be light with a minimal threat
for a rumble of thunder south of I-70.
2) Cooler and mainly dry from this weekend into early next week.
Frost is a possibility Tuesday and Wednesday mornings, mainly
northeast of Pittsburgh.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Cold front will continue to push precipitation
southward through this afternoon. With the upper level support
shifting eastward, the boundary will become nearly parallel to the
flow, slowing down as it moves south of the forecast area. This
could keep lingering precip chances over our WV mountain counties
overnight but the bulk of the rest of the region should be dry.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
Broad upper troughing looks to persist through the
weekend and into next week, with temperatures returning to seasonal
values for early October. The cooler temperatures will be reinforced
by a shortwave digging through the upper trough on Sunday. This wave
could pull moisture, from the boundary that becomes diffuse to the
south of our region after crossing today, northward, leading to some
possible showers south and east of Pittsburgh. At this time the
probability of more than a few light showers/sprinkles is fairly low
(Prob > 0.05 inches around 30% in the WV ridges). After Sunday,
building surface high pressure looks to keep the region dry for
much of the rest of the week.
One thing to watch will be the potential for frost both Tuesday and
Wednesday mornings to the northeast of Pittsburgh, as well as in the
usual Laurel Highland/northern West Virginia cold spots. The NBM
paints a 50% to 75% chance of low temperatures colder than 37
degrees north of US-422 both mornings - which would be chilly enough
for at least patchy frost given clear and calm overnight conditions.
Temperatures from Wednesday on should build back towards more
seasonal values.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Boundary may stall just south of I-70 with some potential
restrictions at MGW lingering into Saturday morning. For the
other ports, scattering skies and lighter northerly winds could
raise some fog concerns but just enough of both could hamper
widespread fog formation. Although steam fog looks possible,
impacts at ports is low probability and low confidence.
Tomorrow, scattered to mostly clear skies is expected for most with
a northeasterly wind up to 5-10 knots.
Outlook...
The stalled boundary to the south may briefly lift north Sunday
morning bringing the potential for ceiling restrictions at the
southern terminals. Otherwise, VFR is progged outside of any
morning fog.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...34
AVIATION...Lupo/AK
Source: PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 2, 7:10 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202610022310-KPBZ-FXUS61-AFDPBZ)
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