PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 21, 12:29 PM CDT
857
FXUS63 KPAH 211729
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1229 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A welcome break from the heat is here! More cooler, seasonable
temps will filter in behind the cold front by Tuesday and last
throughout the week and weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026
A cold front is slowly sinking south through our area overnight and
early this morning then stalling out across our south later today
before finally moving south of the CWA this evening. A few scattered
showers and thunderstorms are currently just outside our northwest
border and should generally stay there. Instability/support for
storms falls off sharply the further into the CWA you get. Some
models are little more bullish with precip chances later today
passing through from SEMO into southern IL and western KY. However,
NBM only has some weak 20% ish isolated chances with the front
lingering today but overall the day is mainly dry. Best chances are
over the Ozark Foothills for a couple hours in the late afternoon.
Some of those weak 20% isolated chances linger into Tuesday with a
shortwave passing aloft, but again the day is mainly dry. Much
cooler and more seasonable temperatures fall into place behind the
front with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s on Tuesday.
Dry and seasonable conditions are in place Wednesday on through the
weekend with a slight warm up next Sunday into Monday. Sfc high
pressure sets up over the Great Lakes and east of the lakes with
upper level ridging over the Midwest.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026
An MVFR ceiling at KMVN may linger through much of the afternoon
before eventually lifting to VFR levels. Otherwise, the TAFs are
VFR. A larger mass of IFR/MVFR ceilings lurks to the north and
northwest of the region, but mixing should curtail its movement
this afternoon, and there shouldn't be enough of a push for it
bodily move southward into or through the region. Where skies
are clear tonight, there should be enough northeast wind to
prevent fog formation.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...DRS
Source: PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 21, 12:29 PM CDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202609211729-KPAH-FXUS63-AFDPAH)
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