LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 16, 1:40 AM CDT ...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
733
FXUS64 KLIX 160640
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
140 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 140 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026
- Drier air from a back door front brings breezy conditions along
coastal areas, unsettled marine waters, and a few scattered
showers/storms today.
- More comfortable humidity and dry conditions will follow on
Thursday and Friday, but moisture and rain chances will begin to
return by the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 140 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026
A weak/subtle backdoor front is moving into the region from the
east. High pressure is wedging down the lower appalachians, which
will be responsible for decreasing surface moisture beyond today.
Pressure gradient will also begin to increase with some coastal
gusts approaching 20 to 25 mph during the afternoon. Additionally,
convection, although somewhat limited in coverage will be
possible, especially over the MS Gulf Coast as well as southeast
Louisiana mainly south of the I10 corridor. CAMs show some rather
decent parameters. First, instability will be there generally at
or above 3K-JKg. DCAPE values of 1200 JKg is also expected during
the afternoon, so wider and more robust updrafts will have the
potential for a strong wind gust or two. PWAT values of 2.2" will
allow for efficient rainfall rates, but with the mean level flow
allowing for storm movement (generally east to west), outside of
the typical urbanized areas, localized flash flooding will be
limited.
Going into Thursday and beyond, the primary story will be lower RH
values, which despite the lower to middle 90s expected for high
temps (nearing record territory), heat index values will not be
much higher as dew point values drop into the lower to mid 60s
during the afternoon hours. Otherwise, moderate easterly flow will
continue as moderate pressure gradient remains in place between
the high wedging down the Appalachians and the lower pressure in
the southern Bay of Campeche. (Frye)
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 140 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026
While the daytime Tuesday medium range modeling agrees on the upper
ridge being near Texarkana Saturday evening, and remaining over
Arkansas for most of the long term period, they definitely do not
agree on the upper low moving across Florida into the Gulf. The
ECMWF side doesn't bring the upper circulation much further west
than the west coast of Florida near Tampa by Saturday evening, the
GFS operational has it off of Southwest Pass. The ECMWF solution
sits it near Tampa for a couple days before weakening it and taking
it northward near Tallahassee on Tuesday. In the 15/18z GFS
operational solution, the low eventually makes it the entire way
across the Gulf to Texas by the middle of next week. In a spread
like this (west vs north), there's really no happy compromise
solution regarding the upper feature, and WPC also notes the
uncertainty. There's not much in the way of a surface reflection in
the pressure fields in either family.
On the brighter side locally, neither family of solutions track real
deep moisture across the area until perhaps midweek next week, if
even then. Until then, precipitable water values look to remain
generally in the 50th to 75th percentile climatologically (in the
1.6 to 1.8 range). The upper high appears to remain close enough to
our area to keep precipitation development on the scattered side and
primarily during the afternoons.
Even with different scenarios, in this case, the deterministic
forecast ends up being fairly similar. Temperatures a bit above
normal (90-95F) and scattered PoPs each day, primarily in the
afternoon. (RW)
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026
Mostly VFR conditions expected through the overnight and into the
morning hours on Wednesday. There will be some limited convective
development during the day on Wednesday, but low confidence is
keeping most sites dry. Closer to the coast the surface winds are
forecast to increase during the day with some gusts for HUM, GPT,
NEW, and MSY approaching 25 to 30 knots at times. Winds should
decrease just a bit shortly after sunset and become far less
gusty. (Frye)
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 140 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026
Surface high pressure will wedge down the southern Appalachians
through mid to late week. This feature will increase low level
pressure gradient and allow surface winds to increase to SCA
thresholds today and Thursday. Seas will respond to these higher
winds and increase to 6 to 9 feet in the open Gulf waters. These
unsettled marine conditions will gradually abate late Friday and
into Saturday. A few showers or storms may develop during the
morning hours with some locally higher winds and waves possible,
especially this morning. (Frye)
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 4 PM CDT Thursday
for GMZ529-531>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 4 PM CDT Thursday
for GMZ531>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF
Source: LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 16, 1:40 AM CDT ...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202609160640-KLIX-FXUS64-AFDLIX)
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