MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 15, 11:16 PM CDT ...New DISCUSSION...
111
FXUS64 KMOB 160416
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1116 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026
...New DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1116 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026
- A High Risk of rip currents is expected for Wednesday and
Thursday. A High Surf Advisory may also become necessary as
surf heights near 5 feet.
- Moderate to strong easterly winds will create hazardous
conditions for small craft over the open Gulf from late tonight
through Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1116 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026
A large upper high pressure system centered over the Tennessee
Valley will retrograde westward to become centered over the
ARKLATEX region Thursday evening. This upper high will remain
nearly stationary Friday through the weekend but diminish in size
as an upper low pressure area off the east Florida coast moves
westward over the Florida Peninsula on Friday, and then into the
eastern Gulf by the weekend. The upper low is expected to come to
a crawl somewhere over the Gulf this weekend into early next week,
but not exactly sure at this time where this may occur due to
model differences. The GFS has the upper low nearly stalling over
the north central Gulf on Sunday while the ECMWF and Canadian
barely get out of the starting blocks and have it stalling near
the Florida Big Bend area on Saturday. The surface ridge across
the southern Appalachians into the Southeastern U.S. however will
remain largely intact, but we are expecting a weak surface trough
reflected at the surface associated with the upper low somewhere
across the Gulf over the weekend into early next week. In the
meantime, we are still looking at an easterly flow keeping the
drier air flowing into our area through at least the remainder of
the week with daytime humidity levels remaining low.
Outside of a few spotty showers today across coastal Alabama into
southeast Mississippi, the forecast area will remain rain-free
through Saturday morning, followed by a daily occurrence of
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms returning over the
weekend through the remainder of the forecast. Temperatures will
remain above normal through the forecast. /22
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 656 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026
VFR conditions prevail through the evening with light southeasterly
winds becoming light and variable after sunset. Some MVFR ceilings
may reach inland along the coast, especially during the predawn to
sunrise hours. Winds increase from east to west by dawn to 10-15
knots and prevail easterly. Expect wind gusts up to 25 knots,
especially along the coast and marine areas. There is low
confidence in isolated showers and thunderstorms along the coast
and offshore in the morning. SS/97
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026
Light to moderate easterly to southeasterly flow becomes strong
Wednesday into Thursday. Winds relax to light to occasionally
moderate easterlies to end the week. Seas increase to 4 to 7 feet on
Wednesday. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the marine
waters late tonight through Thursday afternoon. /13
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 94 75 91 71 / 0 0 10 0
Pensacola 93 77 91 74 / 10 10 0 0
Destin 92 78 91 74 / 20 0 0 0
Evergreen 97 74 92 67 / 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 97 73 94 69 / 0 0 0 0
Camden 97 74 93 68 / 0 0 0 0
Crestview 94 74 91 69 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT Wednesday through Thursday
evening for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT Wednesday through Thursday
evening for FLZ202-204-206.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ650-655-670-
675.
&&
$$
Source: MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 15, 11:16 PM CDT ...New DISCUSSION... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202609160416-KMOB-FXUS64-AFDMOB)
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