Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #1251 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
372
AWUS01 KWNH 112132
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-120230-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1251
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
532 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026
Areas affected...Eastern Mississippi into Alabama
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 112131Z - 120230Z
SUMMARY...Slow-moving thunderstorms with very high rainfall rates
make a threat for flash flooding over eastern Mississippi into
Alabama this evening.
DISCUSSION...As of 2130Z...regional NEXRAD depicts scattered of
thunderstorms on increasingly convergent western boundary of a
mid-level low over central Alabama. Ample moisture (PW of 2.2 to
2.3") and instability (MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg) has allowed heavy
rain rates so far over southern MS and northwestern AL. This focus
area along a trough should continue to drift east this evening and
could congeal over east-central MS into west central AL over the
next few hours. shifts south over eastern GA while earlier
activity from eastern SC progresses toward GA. Max rain rates have
been around 2.5" per KDGX and KGWX with the most recent activity.
Slow motion in 10-15kt deep layer wind should allow localized
flash flooding this evening, especially as it moves east to areas
along the AL/MS border that received rain in the past day and over
urban areas. Recent HRRR and RRFS runs support the ongoing
activity with the RRFS farther east/south with it's motion. Both
agree on max rain threat of 2-4" over the next few hours,
maximized in areas of cell mergers in the slow flow.
Jackson
...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...LIX...MEG...MOB...
ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...
LAT...LON 34718814 34478730 33528751 33268759 32698813
31988828 31438807 30948806 30578856 30758988
31529006 33378978 34488936
Source: Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #1251 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE (https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=1251&yr=2026)
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