MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 8, 4:02 PM CDT ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
685
FXUS64 KMOB 082102
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
402 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 402 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024
Isolated to scattered showers and storms have developed across the
area this afternoon, but should begin to taper off early this
evening with the loss of daytime heating. It's also been very hot
and humid this afternoon with temperatures currently sitting in
the lower and middle 90s. Heat index values have risen into the
105-110 degree range. A Heat Advisory will therefore remain in
effect until 6pm this evening for the entire area. Low
temperatures tonight will range from the middle and upper 70s
inland to around 80 degrees near the coast.
Upper level ridging over southern GA and northern FL will weaken
through Tuesday as Tropical Storm Beryl lifts northeastward across
eastern Texas and Arkansas while simultaneously merging with a
northern steam trough over the central US. This system will remain
off to our northwest, but it will send a plume of deep tropical
moisture down into our area overnight and into Tuesday. Showers
and storms will likely begin to develop along southern portions of
the area early Tuesday morning before spreading across the
remainder of the area through the day. Given the weakening upper
ridge and increasing moisture, coverage will become more
widespread especially as we head into the afternoon hours. Storms
on Tuesday will be capable of producing heavy rainfall (perhaps a
quick 2-3+ inches) and could lead to some localized flooding
concerns especially in areas where storms repeatedly move over the
same areas and are slow moving. Brief gusty winds and frequent
lightning will also be possible with the stronger activity.
Temperatures will top out in the lower 90s Tuesday afternoon as
cloud cover and rain chances increase. It will still feel quite
humid though with heat index values reaching to around 105-107
degrees. A moderate rip current risk continues tonight before
increasing back to a high risk on Tuesday. /14
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 402 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024
The remnants of Beryl will continue to lift northeastward across
the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valley regions Tuesday night into
Wednesday. A weak surface front moving into our forecast area will
stall near the I-65 corridor Wednesday afternoon before becoming
more of a surface trough axis across our region by Thursday. A
plume of enhanced deep layer moisture across our area with PWAT
values between 2.0 and 2.4 inches will shift southeastward to
become oriented across central and southern portions of our
forecast as drier air filters in from the northwest, so we expect
a chance of showers and thunderstorms (30-40%) over most of the
CWA on Wednesday, with lower POPs (20%) across our northwestern
zones. An upper trough associated with the remnants of Beryl is
expected to persist over the eastern half of the US through
Thursday, followed by weak upper ridging building over the Deep
South late in the week. As a result, convective coverage should
remain isolated to scattered in nature on Thursday and Friday,
and mainly oriented along the surface trough axis/seabreeze near
the coast. Precipitable water values may trend upward by the
weekend despite the building ridge axis, so scattered convection
looks to be a good bet with good heating and instability over the
weekend into Monday. Hot and humid conditions will be the rule
each day through the extended forecast with high temperatures
ranging in the lower to mid 90s Wednesday and Thursday and
potentially trending a bit higher in the mid to upper 90s away
from the immediate coast Friday through the weekend. Heat index
values look to stay below advisory criteria for the most part
during the middle to latter part of the week. The latest forecast
does have maximum heat index readings ranging between 102-107
degrees and locally over 108 degrees over a few spots over the
weekend into Monday. /22
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 402 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024
Southeasterly flow prevails today before becoming a moderate
southwesterly to westerly flow Tuesday through mid-week. Small
craft will likely need to exercise caution Tuesday night. Light
westerly to southwesterly flow returns for the later part of the
week. /14
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 78 90 75 91 74 93 74 94 / 30 80 50 40 20 30 10 40
Pensacola 80 91 79 90 77 91 77 93 / 30 80 60 60 30 40 20 40
Destin 81 91 80 89 78 91 79 92 / 30 70 50 70 40 40 20 40
Evergreen 75 93 74 91 70 92 69 95 / 20 80 20 40 10 20 10 20
Waynesboro 75 93 71 92 70 94 71 96 / 20 80 10 20 10 10 0 20
Camden 75 92 72 90 69 92 69 94 / 20 80 20 30 10 10 0 20
Crestview 76 93 75 91 72 94 72 96 / 20 80 40 60 20 40 10 40
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266.
High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday morning through Wednesday
evening for ALZ265-266.
FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.
High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday morning through Wednesday
evening for FLZ202-204-206.
MS...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-
079.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source: MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 8, 4:02 PM CDT ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202407082102-KMOB-FXUS64-AFDMOB)
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