JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 10, 9:59 AM EDT
366
FXUS63 KJKL 101359
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
959 AM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front will arrive after
midnight tonight, and continue at times through Thursday night.
- Heavy rainfall could lead to isolated instances of flash
flooding east of I-75.
- Unsettled weather will continue through early this weekend, as the
front stalls in the vicinity of eastern Kentucky.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 959 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
Adjusted the forecast to increase PoPs over the next several hours
to account for current radar trends. Also incorporated the latest
observational data from around the area. A cold front coming out of
the northwest will slowly progress southeast through the day and into
the evening. Off and on rain and thunderstorms are expected with
heavy rainfall possible in the most persistent rain bands. This
could lead to isolated instances of flash flooding.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 520 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
A weak, slow moving cold front is positioned largely east/west
through IL, IN, and OH early this morning. It is creeping south as
a series of shortwave troughs ripple through in fairly zonal flow
aloft. The next wave is currently over the middle of the CONUS
from OK to MN. There is also and strong upper level jet from the
Great Lakes to New England, with its right entrance region
providing support for precip over the Ohio Valley. Advection of
warm, moist air ahead of the front is fueling ongoing
showers/thunderstorms dropping out of southern OH, with additional
development in central KY making its way more so into eastern KY
presently.
The front will make its way ever so slowly southward during the
short term period, with additional showers/thunderstorms expected
to develop over KY. Confidence in details of the timing and
positioning of upcoming precip is remains limited. In general,
the greatest POP in the near term is today into tonight, with the
upper jet then forecast to shift eastward and away from the area
with time. However, the southern tail of the aforementioned wave
is expected to be left behind over the middle of the CONUS and
approach us from the west on Friday, and with the front in the
area, still keep conditions favorable for at least scattered
showers/thunderstorms.
Precipitable water today and tonight should be near or above 2",
especially for the central and northern portions of the forecast
area. With a potential for some training of convection as well,
this could result in locally heavy rainfall. It's been a while
since significant rainfall and 1 hour FFG is mostly in the 2-2.5"
range. This would initially limit the potential for hydro
concerns, but should multiple rounds of convection hit the same
areas, wouldn't rule out some problems.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 520 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
General model agreement remains regarding the long wave pattern
through the middle of next week. Amplified and progressive flow will
modulate across the northern half of the CONUS, while ridging
gradually consolidates and expands west over the southeastern
portion of the U.S. Eastern Kentucky will reside between a departing
upper trough off of New England and a weak upper trough over the Mid-
South region. At the surface, a weak cold front will be positioned
near the Tennessee border back towards the lower Mississippi Valley.
Eastern Kentucky will find itself in an unsettled pattern continuing
into early this weekend, as troughing is maintained aloft, and the
surface boundary lingers in the vicinity of the region. Model
guidance has favored a slower transition to increasing 500 mb
heights compared to yesterday. This will result in higher PoPs
across the area through Saturday, with some locally heavy rainers
still possible.
Sunday through Tuesday, more decisive ridging will build in aloft,
which will limit the areal coverage of any convection.
Unfortunately, this will also allow for more above normal heat and
humidity, with highs returning to the mid to upper 80s, and even
some lower 90s at times. Dew points will also likely exceed 70
degrees for the majority of the period. By Wednesday, the upper
level ridge may broaden and pivot enough to allow for enough passing
shortwave energy to drive the next surface cold front south of the
Ohio River. This will bring another uptick in PoPs by Wednesday,
although confidence in timing is pretty low this far out.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 846 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms were affecting portions
of the area at the start of the period. The precip was bringing
very localized sub-VFR conditions, with VFR elsewhere. More
numerous showers and thunderstorms were over central KY, moving
east.
The central KY precip will likely affect at least northern
portions of the JKL forecast area this morning with MVFR (or
possibly IFR) conditions at times. After that there is less
confidence in the forecast. It currently calls for a relative
lull in activity, with a resurgence during the late afternoon and
early evening. The forecast is largely following MOS guidance
which is suggesting IFR conditions for most places overnight,
assuming that precip occurs before that and allows for fog and low
clouds to develop.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GINNICK
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...HAL
Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 10, 9:59 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202609101359-KJKL-FXUS63-AFDJKL)
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