Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #1236 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
021
AWUS01 KWNH 100709
FFGMPD
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-101307-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1236
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
307 AM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026
Areas affected...portions of the Upper OH Valley
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 100707Z - 101307Z
Summary...Training thunderstorms with heavy rainfall continue
across southern OH while other thunderstorms approach from
southern IL. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with additional local
totals to 4" could lead to widely scattered flash flooding.
Discussion...Partially surface-based thunderstorms have shown some
backbuilding and training character across southern OH as they
feed off a 1000+ J/kg MU CAPE pool near the tri-state border of
OH/IN/KY. Recent radar estimates were near 6" between Waverly
City and Jackson OH. Additional thunderstorms have been forming
as of late across north-central KY while an additional batch moves
in from southern IL. This is occurring within a zone of 850 hPa
confluence. Precipitable water values are 1.7-2.3" per GPS data.
Effective bulk shear remains 25-40 kts.
The 00z HREF/REFS guidance were a county or two too far north with
the convection in southern OH and an hour too slow with the
activity moving across southern IL. The expectation is for
thunderstorm activity to try to bridge between these two
convective areas -- backbuilding from the east and progressing
from the west -- with the merged areas eventually dropping south
as the instability pool near the tri-state border erodes. It
appears the REFS has a better concept of this idea than the HREF
though it's probably a little too far north. In the meantime,
hourly rain amounts to 2.5" and additional local totals to 4" are
possible, which could lead to widely scattered instances of flash
flooding, particularly in urban areas and locations with relief in
WV.
Roth
...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...JKL...LMK...LSX...PAH...RLX...
RNK...
ATTN...RFC...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...
LAT...LON 39488308 39208144 38578011 37908098 37588255
37248538 37638925 38748905 38998779 38868600
Source: Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #1236 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE (https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=1236&yr=2026)
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