WCO issues Area Hydrological Discussion (AHD) at Sep 9, 8:19 PM CDT
750
AGUS74 KWCO 100123
AHDNWC
Area Hydrological Discussion #204 - EXPERIMENTAL
NWS National Water Center - Tuscaloosa, AL
819 PM CDT Wed Sep 09 2026
POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Flash and small stream flooding possible
WHERE: Northeastern Kentucky, southeastern Ohio, and northwestern
West Virginia
WHEN: Late evening through early tomorrow morning
FORECAST RAINFALL AND ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...
QPF: 1 - 3", locally higher (HRRR/RRFS)
Rates: 1 - 2"+ (HRRR/RRFS)
Soil Moisture: Variable (0 - 10 cm, NASA SPoRT)
Streamflows: Normal to much above normal (USGS)
DISCUSSION...
A line of heavy thunderstorms currently over eastern Ohio and western
Pennsylvania will move into the area of concern within the next
several hours and potentially bring flash and small stream flooding
impacts beginning overnight and through early tomorrow morning. While
soils have recovered from recent rainfall events, streamflows are at
or above climatological normals for this time of year. There is also
an added component of steep/hilly terrain across portions of eastern
Kentucky, southeastern Ohio, and West Virginia, and given the current
streamflow conditions, smaller basins in this area are favorable for
rapid responses from enhanced runoff. The overnight timing further
increases concerns, as limited visibility may make identifying
flooded crossings exceptionally difficult.
The HRRR-forced National Water Model has been indicating medium
probabilities of rapid-onset flooding across southeastern
Pennsylvania and northwestern West Virginia, with basin averages
ranging between 26 and 75%. Corresponding annual exceedance
probabilities of 50 - 10%, as well as sufficient forecast unit
discharge values, increases confidence in the likelihood of small
stream flooding in this region. suggesting that at least modest
stream rises are possible. While confidence for hydrologic impacts is
highest in southeastern Ohio and northwestern West Virginia, flooding
impacts will be greatest in areas where convection trains/stalls and
where more intense rainfall rates materialize.
GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION: water.noaa.gov/operations/ahd
Additional National Water Center products are available at:
weather.gov/owp/operations
//JDP
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...ILN...LMK...JKL...RLX
ATTN...RFC...TIR...WPC
Source: WCO issues Area Hydrological Discussion (AHD) at Sep 9, 8:19 PM CDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202609100119-KWCO-AGUS74-AHDNWC)
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