ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 5, 7:48 PM EDT
851
FXUS61 KILN 052348
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
748 PM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) One or more complexes of strong to severe thunderstorms will be
possible this afternoon and evening. Any storms that develop may
produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds.
2) A quieter and cooler pattern is expected for the end of the
weekend into the first half of the work week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)
Current development in Greene/Fayette Counties looks to be firing on
a w-e boundary that was in nrn IL/IN about 4 hours ago. More storms
are beginning as well in ncntl/ne IN. As of this moment, the CWA will
be adjusting to the neutrally unstable atmosphere in the wake of a
strong tstm cold pool. Around daybreak, outflow spread out fairly
equally across the CWA. Funneling in air behind it early this
afternoon may be playing with the timing/placement of storms, of
which hasn't been of any confidence leading up to even now.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
By Sunday, large scale ridging builds into our west, heralding in
northerly flow and a broad area of surface high pressure. This
translates to quieter and cooler conditions, with highs on Sunday and
Monday only reaching the low 80s, while overnight lows fall into the
low 60s/upper 50s. Unfortunately, this reprieve is short lived as
the bulk of the ridge continues to push east into our area, bringing
a return temperatures in the low 90s by mid week. A disturbance to
our north looks to bring the next chances for precipitation mid-week
as it drags a cold front through the Great Lakes region, though we're
still a bit far out for details.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Thunderstorm activity should quickly decrease within the first hour
of the TAF sites, however, some lingering showers will remain
possible. As the cold front moves through, MVFR CIGs will become the
primary focus as winds become more persistent out of the northeast.
This will continue throughout the rest of the TAF with CIGs improving
back to VFR.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGs possible Monday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Franks
AVIATION...McGinnis
Source: ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 5, 7:48 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202609052348-KILN-FXUS61-AFDILN)
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