JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 29, 2:13 PM EDT
324
FXUS63 KJKL 291813
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
213 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry conditions will prevail for the next several days as
temperatures climb back to above normal levels.
- September begins quite warm and heat indices may reach 100
degrees in a few spots each afternoon for Wednesday and
Thursday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 841 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026
Have incorporated satellite imagery to better capture areas
waiting for fog and low clouds to dissipate this morning.
UPDATE Issued at 725 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026
No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers
along with a freshening of the zones.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 510 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026
08Z sfc analysis shows high pressure located to the northeast in
firm control of the weather over eastern Kentucky this night.
This has meant light to calm winds, mostly clear skies, and the
development of river valley fog. In addition, radiational cooling
allowed a small ridge to valley temperature difference to set up
over the area with readings ranging from the upper 50s in the low
spots to the mid 60s on the hills. Meanwhile, dewpoints are in
generally in the low 60s.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in excellent
agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast.
They all depict rising heights at 5h for Kentucky as troughing
retreats to the northeast and strong southwest ridging builds
east into the Tennessee Valley through the weekend. This heat dome
will approach from the west and shove the earlier faster
northwesterly mid-level flow off to the northeast of the region.
This means subsidence will rule making for quiet and warming
sensible weather. Due to the very small spread in the models'
aloft, mainly unadjusted NBM data was used for the forecast
grids. However, some enhancements were made to highlight terrain
details in temperatures tonight along with slightly lower
afternoon dewpoints each day. Meanwhile, in conjunction with the
latest CAMs' consensus, PoPs were left at near zero through the
period.
Sensible weather will feature areas of valley fog, locally dense
near the rivers and lakes, clearing out shortly after sunrise and
not marring sunny skies along with warmer temperatures that is
just a taste of what is to come. Look for near repeat conditions
tonight compared to this current one with everything a few degrees
warmer and a similar fog setup. Sunday looks even warmer and
continued dry as high pressure works further away to the east
encouraging more moisture and higher humidity to seep in from the
west in the return flow - though convection will be hindered by
the subsidence of ridging aloft. Cannot completely rule out a
stray shower or storm popping up over the higher terrain but
coverage and odds of being hit by one of these even in the border
counties will be well below 10 percent and thus unmentioned in the
forecast specifics.
The main adjustments to the NBM starting point were to include
terrain details in the upcoming overnight temperatures. As for
PoPs - kept them in the low single digits to zero through the
period thanks to sfc high pressure and building heights aloft
dominating through the weekend.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 430 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026
The most current model data continues to suggest that the current
forecast is on track for a dry and gradually warming period into
Mid week with low to mid 90s on tap for highs to start as we are a
bit warmer each day. We still see the potential for convection in
a few of the model solutions across forecast area on Thursday and
Friday - mainly in the afternoon and evening hours with better
support from the ECMWF runs than the GFS at this point. Heat
headlines may be needed for at least western parts of the area at
midweek - depending on how effectively the higher dewpoints can
move east into this part of the state.
The previous long term discussion follows:
Summer saw September coming and said hold my drink, I've got some
fight left in me. The story of the extended period is the Death
Ridge that sets up across Kentucky and points south starting on
Sunday and continuing until at least mid-week next week. In addition
to this increasing level of subsidence, surface winds will also be
out of the SW across Kentucky due to a surface high pressure just to
our east, allowing return flow and WAA into the region. Both
combined will mean sunny, hot, and humid conditions. Upper 80s over
the weekend will make way for low to mid 90s through much of the
work week. Humidity will only insult things further, as heat indices
are forecast to register in the upper 90s, even topping 100 degrees
in some locations. Overnight lows will also gradually trend warmer
throughout the work week, starting in the upper 60s over the weekend
and ending in the low to mid 70s. Even if the forecast modifies
slightly as we get closer in time, the numbers changing a couple
degrees won't change the fact that it is going to be hot next week.
As far as precipitation, the strong subsidence should keep us dry
through mid-week. As we head into Wednesday, we do have some slight
chances of precipitation returning according to the NBM. However,
looking at the models, the ridge is still very much on top of us,
and none of the models are really showing any rain for the state.
Therefore, expect that the NBM, despite it being low chances, may
still be overdone. By Thursday, the models start to diverge in their
solutions. The ECMWF shows the ridge finally breaking down across
Kentucky, with NW flow returning and a surface system getting
steered SE straight into the Ohio Valley with likely precipitation.
Meanwhile, the GFS still shows big bubble no trouble overhead of
Kentucky, with no precipitation in sight. Trying to blend between
these two opposite model solutions, the NBM has gone with slight
chances in some locations, ramping up to chances in the afternoon
in the far east. Just like the temperatures, expect these pops to
change and modify some as we get closer to onset and the models
hopefully come into better agreement.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026
Aside from localized valley fog bringing IFR or worse conditions
late tonight and early Sunday, VFR conditions are forecast through
the period. Fog is not forecast to affect TAF sites.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL/GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW/GREIF
AVIATION...HAL
Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 29, 2:13 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202608291813-KJKL-FXUS63-AFDJKL)
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