JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 28, 4:09 PM EDT
541
FXUS63 KJKL 282009
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
409 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry conditions will prevail for the next several days as
temperatures climb back to above normal levels.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 408 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
Eastern CONUS troughing will weaken during the short term period,
with most of the flow aloft retreating to our north and flattening
as a subtropical high builds eastward toward us. Meanwhile, at the
surface, high pressure currently over the lower Great Lakes will
transition southeast off the mid Atlantic coast by Sunday morning.
This will veer our low level flow from the northeast this evening
to the southwest by Sunday morning, ending our cold/dry advection
and starting a change to warm air advection. However, our low
level flow will largely originate out of the high and not traverse
the gulf, so moisture will be slow to rebound and weather will
remain dry. It will also result in warm temperatures on Saturday
beneath the increasing geopotential heights. Although, lows will
still drop off well into the 60s each night as dew points are slow
to climb.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 408 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
Summer saw September coming and said hold my drink, I've got some
fight left in me. The story of the extended period is the Death
Ridge that sets up across Kentucky and points south starting on
Sunday and continuing until at least mid-week next week. In addition
to this increasing level of subsidence, surface winds will also be
out of the SW across Kentucky due to a surface high pressure just to
our east, allowing return flow and WAA into the region. Both
combined will mean sunny, hot, and humid conditions. Upper 80s over
the weekend will make way for low to mid 90s through much of the
work week. Humidity will only insult things further, as heat indices
are forecast to register in the upper 90s, even topping 100 degrees
in some locations. Overnight lows will also gradually trend warmer
throughout the work week, starting in the upper 60s over the weekend
and ending in the low to mid 70s. Even if the forecast modifies
slightly as we get closer in time, the numbers changing a couple
degrees won't change the fact that it is going to be hot next week.
As far as precipitation, the strong subsidence should keep us dry
through mid-week. As we head into Wednesday, we do have some slight
chances of precipitation returning according to the NBM. However,
looking at the models, the ridge is still very much on top of us,
and none of the models are really showing any rain for the state.
Therefore, expect that the NBM, despite it being low chances, may
still be overdone. By Thursday, the models start to diverge in their
solutions. The ECMWF shows the ridge finally breaking down across
Kentucky, with NW flow returning and a surface system getting
steered SE straight into the Ohio Valley with likely precipitation.
Meanwhile, the GFS still shows big bubble no trouble overhead of
Kentucky, with no precipitation in site. Trying to blend between
these two opposite model solutions, the NBM has gone with slight
chances in some locations, ramping up to chances in the afternoon in
the far east. Just like the temperatures, expect these pops to
change and modify some as we get closer to onset and the models
hopefully come into better agreement.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
Very isolated showers will affect a few locations near the VA
border this afternoon, possibly resulting in sub-VFR conditions.
Valley fog is expected late tonight into Saturday morning,
bringing localized IFR or worse conditions, including a few TAF
sites. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL
Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 28, 4:09 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202608282009-KJKL-FXUS63-AFDJKL)
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