CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 31, 1:44 AM EDT
292
FXUS61 KCLE 310544
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
144 AM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes with this forecast update.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Light, scattered showers are possible this afternoon through late
tonight.
2) Excessive heat risk increases Monday through Wednesday, with peak
impacts on Wednesday. Max heat indices will be in the mid 90s to low
100s.
3) Periodic thunderstorm activity is possible Monday night through
Friday. There is very low confidence in timing and track of
thunderstorms during this period.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Light showers across the area currently, should quickly
scatter out over the next couple hours as the mid-level
shortwave and associated large-scale forcing for ascent
dissipates.
A low-level jet over lower Michigan will fuel continues
moisture advection, which when coupled with the upper-level jet
stream, should provide a more steadier stream of moderate rain
this evening into tonight across parts of Northwest
Pennsylvania. The latest 12Z HREF has about a 20-30% of >1" of
rain, mainly in Erie, PA. Flash flooding is not expected there
but certainly enough QPF for some minor, nuisance flooding.
Elsewhere, light, scattered showers expected again late tonight
as the next mid-level shortwave (currently over eastern Iowa),
moves through.
KEY MESSAGE 2...An upper-level ridge gradually builds in from
the southwest through the next couple days. Surface high
pressure located to our southeast favors continued southwest
advection of a hot and humid airmass into our forecast area
starting Monday and especially Tuesday and Wednesday when Major
HeatRisk impacts are expected. While highs are likely to be in
the low 90s on Tuesday and Wednesday humidity will contribute
to heat indices in the mid 90s to low 100s.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
The excessive heat and humidity this week will also contribute
to building instability to the region, though weak forcing with
a low-amplitude trough to the north makes it difficult to
determine when and where thunderstorms develop. If storms
develop, moderate mid-level flow along the periphery of the
building ridge would favor severe weather, hence a broad day 3
SPC marginal risk for Tuesday, despite the very low confidence
in thunderstorm evolution. Wednesday should be similar before we
get slightly better confidence in storm develop on Thursday
ahead an approaching cold front from the north.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Very light showers will move across northern Ohio overnight,
with mostly VFR conditions, as a weak upper trough slides east
under the ridge. Meanwhile, a quasi-stationary boundary remains
draped from Michigan, across Lake Erie, and into southwestern
PA, providing an focal point for continued rain and embedded,
high based thunderstorms. This will continue at times through
the day Monday, primarily impacting KERI. Southerly winds will
shift southwesterly by mid-day tomorrow, as high pressure over
the Carolinas remains fully entrenched, and remain 10kts or
less. High VFR cumulus is likely to develop in the hot, humid
atmosphere under the high, with ceilings around FL100.
Outlook...Non-VFR conditions are possible Tuesday, with
scattered showers and thunderstorms across far northeast OH and
northwest PA. Unsettled conditions, with von-VFR in showers and
thunderstorms, are expected Wednesday through Friday.
&&
.MARINE...
Marine weather will be somewhat unsettled and potentially stormy
at times during this week. The main message for the marine
community will be stay alert on the latest forecast and timing
of any storms over the next several days, especially Tuesday
through Thursday. A warm front is lifting northward across the
lake today and will stall out near or just north of the area
this week with multiple rounds of storms possible. Outside of
possible storms to look out for on the lake this week, winds
will generally be from the south or southwest 5 to 15 knots and
waves of 1 to 3 feet. The 10 to 15 knots winds will favor the
midday and afternoon hours this week as well as the open waters.
Any organized convection, gust fronts, and outflows from storms
may cause rapid changes in marine weather conditions. No marine
headlines are anticipated this week on the lake at this time.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Saunders
AVIATION...26/27
MARINE...77
Source: CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 31, 1:44 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202608310544-KCLE-FXUS61-AFDCLE)
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