JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 25, 10:49 PM EDT
724
FXUS63 KJKL 260249
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1049 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Less humid air prevails into Wednesday, with low temperatures
around 5 degrees below normal.
- Temperatures and humidity increase late Wednesday and into
Thursday ahead of the next cold front, leading to a potential
for a few thunderstorms.
- A few storms on Thursday could produce strong to locally
damaging wind gusts.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1049 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
Temperatures are dropping through the 60s late this evening and
some of cooler spots are already in the 50s. Forecast for the
overnight remains on track with mostly clear skies outside of the
typical river valley fog and low temperatures ranging through the
50s in valleys to around 60F on ridges.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 420 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
Late this afternoon, an upper level ridge was centered over the
NM vicinity with ridging into the Southeast/Gulf coast and also
extending north to the Northern Rockies into western Canada. A
upper low was moving from across western Ontario with a shortwave
trough south into parts of the Upper MS Valley. At the sfc, a
ridge of high pressure extended from OH to the mid Atlantic coast
while a nearly stalled frontal/baroclinic zone extended from the
SC coast across the Gulf states to the Southern Plains. A sfc low
was also moving across western Ontario with a cold front trailing
into the Central Plains. Daytime mixing has led to most of the
cumulus that developed having mixed out. Temperatures as of late
afternoon were below normal highs for this time of year by around
5 degrees, ranging form the upper 70s to lower 80s. Dewpoint
generally ranged through the 50s to around 60.
This evening through Wednesday, the upper level low in Canada
should move to the southeast in Ontario and become an open wave
with the associated 500 mb shortwave trough axis extending into
the Central Great Lakes to Lower OH Valley by Wednesday evening.
At the same time, the upper level ridge should remain centered in
the NM vicinity with the axis of this ridge shifting east and
extend north across the Four Corners to MT to Alberta at that
point. Meanwhile, the sfc low in Ontario should move gradually to
the east with the associated cold front moving into the Central
Great Lakes to Mid MS Valley region. A few weaker shortwaves may
move around the ridging and into the trough and near the Lower OH
Valley for Wednesday night. The shortwave extending from Canada
into the eastern Conus should move into Quebec to the eastern
Great Lakes to Lower OH Valley region to TN Valley through the end
of the period while the sfc cold front only gradually nears the
eastern Great Lakes and enters the Lower OH Valley.
Another dry night is in store with the sfc ridging favoring moderate
ridge/valley splits and fog along the rivers, the larger creeks,
and area lakes. Some of this could become dense in some areas and
affect a portion of the morning commute. Afternoon dewpoints are
likely to increase a few degrees Wednesday afternoon, though a
more robust increase in moisture will not come until later
Wednesday night into the start of the long term period. Another
night with at least patchy fog and a moderate ridge/valley split
is again favored. In the warm sector a stray shower cannot be
completely ruled out, though chances for convection will be much
more favored as the day progresses on Thursday.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 415 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
The period is expected to begin with an upper level ridge centered
in the southwest Conus with the axis of the ridge extending to MT
and Manitoba while an upper level low should be centered over
Hudson Bay to the eastern Great Lakes to eastern KY to the
Southeast. Well to the west, an upper level trough should be
nearing the BC coast to the west coast of the Conus. At the
surface, an area of low pressure should be centered near the
Ontario and Quebec border with a cold front trailing into the
Lower OH Valley to the Southern Plains. A ridge of sfc high
pressure should extend from Manitoba to the Northern to Central
Plains to mid MS Valley.
Thursday to Friday night, the upper level low in Canada should
move into northern Quebec, while the associated trough should
move into western Quebec to the mid Atlantic states to Southeast.
At the same time, the upper ridge centered in the Southwest Conus
should become centered over southern NM while the axis of the
ridge tot he north moves to Manitoba to the Dakotas to Co while
this ridge also builds east into the Lower MS Valley and the Lower
OH Valley and TN Valley. At the same time, the the upper level
trough initially nearing the west coast of Canada and the western
Conus should move into western Canada to Northwest Conus. The sfc
low in advance of the upper trough in sections of eastern Canada
to the eastern Conus, should track into Quebec to the Maritimes
with the trailing cold front crossing eastern KY late Thursday
evening into Thursday night. A secondary boundary passes the area
in more of a dry manner later Friday into Friday night with a sfc
ridge building across the Great Lakes to Lower OH Valley in its
wake. Recent guidance suggests 1500 to 2500 J/kg of MLCAPE for
Thursday afternoon and evening with 20 to 30KT of bulk shear. This
moderate instability and modest shear values could support some
organized line segments capable of strong to locally damaging
wind gusts. Recent EC based AI/machine learning guidance also
support some lower probabilities of Convective Hazards along with
GEFS based probabilties also elevated for that timeframe.
Saturday to Sunday night, upper ridging should become centered
over the mid MS Valley southwest to the Southern Plains from
Saturday to Saturday night and then over the Southeastern Conus
through Sunday into Sunday night. The upper trough initially
extending into the Mid Atlantic states shifts to the northeast
and to the Maritimes while the upper trough initially over
western Canada to the Northwest moves east to Manitoba to the
Northern and Central Plains. A ridge of sfc high pressure
initially from the eastern Great Lakes to Lower OH Valley
gradually shifts off the Northeast U.S Coast to the Southern
Appalachians and become centered over the Southern Plains by late
Sunday night. Further west and northwest an area of low pressure
should trek near the US Canadian border with a warm front lifting
toward the Lower OH Valley late Sunday into Sunday night. This
scenario would favor mainly dry weather with the potential for
moderate ridge/valley splits with highs near normal to as much as
5 degrees above normal.
Monday to Tuesday, upper level ridging should extend from the
Southern Plains across the Southern Plains to portions of the
Atlantic. The shortwave moving from Manitoba to Ontario and near
the Quebec border and also crossing the Great Lakes and into the
Mid Atlantic/Northeast. The associated sfc system should pass well
to the north while a frontal zone/baroclinic zone should be over
or near eastern KY. Temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90
and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s would support marginal to
moderate instability each afternoon and mainly diurnally driven
convection.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 821 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
There will be the potential for fog overnight in the more
sheltered valleys but no impacts are forecast at the TAF sites.
Otherwise, expect passing high clouds at times. Winds will be
light around 5 knots or less.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GEERTSON
Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 25, 10:49 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202608260249-KJKL-FXUS63-AFDJKL)
---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!