PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 17, 1:39 PM CDT
560
FXUS63 KPAH 171839
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
139 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Seasonable temperatures expected this week as welcome relief
from the hot weather.
- Another cold front's approach and passage brings our next
storm chances, including strong to severe storm chances,
Wednesday evening.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 138 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026
More seasonable temperatures are here this week with relief from the
hot weather. Sfc high pressure moves overhead by Tuesday morning
resulting in a pleasant day with mid 60s dewpoints and clear skies.
The high then shifts east Tuesday night and brings back warm, moist
return flow.
A shortwave aloft begins to form over the northern Plains on
Wednesday and rolls through the region Thursday afternoon into
Friday morning. Ahead of this shortwave is a quick perturbation in
the flow that pushes a cold front through the area on Wednesday.
PoPs are reintroduced into the forecast late Tuesday night/early
Wednesday morning and last through Thursday afternoon (with a brief
break Wednesday afternoon). Several factors are coming together to
support an MCS threat Wednesday evening maybe into the overnight.
Placement of the leading perturbation aloft will be key. Models
support a low level jet with westerly shear around 35-40 kts
(possibly up to 50 kts per the GFS), decent mid-level lapse rates
around 6 degC/km, and inverted V soundings. Also, the CSU MLP has a
15% wind threat area over SEMO.
Right now there is decent consistency in the deterministic models
and the ensembles with the GFS being the worst case scenario. The
main threat would be damaging wind, but can't rule out some hail or
even a quick QLCS tornado or two (if things line up just right).
Heavy rain is also possible with 2.2" PWATs. Behind this cold front,
cooler and drier air settles in with dewpoints back down in the mid
60s and seasonable highs to end the week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1158 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026
BKN MVFR cigs should go more SCT over the next few hours and
may lift to around 3,500 ft. Some fog potential overnight at the
terminals. Vsby restrictions may be greatest at MVN and CGI.
Winds will be mainly calm overnight. Light and variable winds
are expected tomorrow.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...HICKFORD
Source: PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 17, 1:39 PM CDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202608171839-KPAH-FXUS63-AFDPAH)
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