Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #1046 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY
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Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1046
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
433 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026
Areas affected...Far Southeast IA...Central IL...Central and
Southern IN...Central and Southern OH...Northeast KY...Western WV
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely
Valid 140833Z - 141430Z
SUMMARY...An expansive axis of heavy showers and thunderstorms
will continue this morning across sizable portions of the OH
Valley. Numerous areas of flash flooding will continue over the
next several hours, with locally significant/dangerous flash
flooding impacts possible.
DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a large
area of heavy showers and thunderstorms impacting far southeast IA
through central IL, central IN and western OH. The overall
convective footprint remains generally confined to an elevated
instability gradient situated north of a stationary front across
the Middle MS and OH Valley region.
A nose of stronger low-level jet energy (30+ kts) is seen VWP data
riding up across northeast MO and into areas of central and
western IL and overrunning this boundary. Over the last hour, some
very strong overshooting top activity has been noted here with
cloud top temperatures as cold as -80C. Isentropic ascent
continues to extend downstream across central IN and western OH,
and over the next few hours, this will help sustain an axis of
heavy showers and thunderstorms here as well.
MUCAPE values of 2000 to 3000 J/kg are in place, with the greatest
values noted over central IL and west-central to southwest IN. PWs
are also quite high and indicative of a tropical environment with
values of 2.0 to 2.25 inches. This will support convection with
extreme rainfall rates capable of reaching 2 to 3 inches/hour for
at least the next few hours.
Developing cold pool activity over areas of central IN through
western OH may help the eastern flank of the convective axis to
settle more to the southeast in time this morning, allowing for
more of a west-northwest to east-southeast convective orientation
that will be conducive for additional cell-training. Already as
much as 3 to 5 inches of rain has fallen over the last 6 hours
across parts of eastern IL and central IN based on the latest MRMS
data, with numerous areas of flash flooding ongoing.
The latest multi-model hires guidance suggests that the overall
convective mass should begin to weaken after 12Z (7AM CDT), but
with the level of instability in place across the Lower OH Valley
near this front and the aforementioned low-level jet arriving from
the Middle MS Valley, it is possible that the ongoing MCS activity
may last longer than the model guidance supports. This may
especially be the case across western and central IL down through
south-central IN.
Additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches will be possible this
morning before convection eventually begins to wane. Numerous
areas of flash flooding will continue, and some locally
significant/dangerous flash flooding impacts will be possible.
Orrison
...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CLE...DVN...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...JKL...LMK...
LOT...LSX...PBZ...RLX...
ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...
LAT...LON 41428970 40988729 40878580 40918360 40618161
39778057 38718055 38278071 37718131 37718288
38388503 38858782 39419022 40179145 40939156
41389089
Source: Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #1046 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY (https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=1046&yr=2026)
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