LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 8, 12:33 AM CDT ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
378
FXUS64 KLIX 080533
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1233 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1212 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026
- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop
each afternoon. Any storms will be very slow moving and may
generate enough rain to cause localized flooding in poorly
drained and low lying areas.
- Heat index values will climb to around 105 each day, but are
currently forecast to remain just below hazardous levels.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026
A persistence forecast is the name of the game in the short term
period as a broad upper level ridge axis centered over Florida
extends westward into the Gulf South over the weekend and into
early next week. Although the ridge will be over the area, there
will continue to be ample moisture and instability in place to
support scattered shower and thunderstorm development each day.
PWATS will remain near average for the time of year between 1.9
and 2.1 inches, and each day will see MLCAPE of 1500 to 2000 J/KG
develop as temperatures climb into the low to mid 90s. As is
typically seen in the Summer months, the convection will initially
develop offshore in the early morning hours, usually in
conjunction with a weak landbreeze boundary. As temperatures warm
over land, a seabreeze will develop and the convective activity
will move into coastal areas in the late morning hours and then
spread further inland as the afternoon hours proceed. Once daytime
heating is gone in the early evening hours, the convective
activity will end. Storm motion will remain limited today at 5 mph
or less, so some localized street flooding could occur as
rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour will occur with the
strongest storms. Storm motion will increase a bit to around 10
mph for Sunday and Monday, but a quick inch of rain in an hour
could still cause some minor street flooding in poorly drained
areas. The storm motion will once again fall back to around 5 mph
or less by Tuesday, so the localized street flooding threat will
increase again. Outside of the street flooding threat, heat index
values will be around 105 degrees each afternoon. Although this is
not unusual heat for this time of year, continue to stay hydrated
and take frequent breaks in air conditioned spaces this weekend
into early next week.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Friday)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026
Not a lot of change through the extended as the westerlies continue
to be locked well to the north of our area, which is exactly how
climatology has August playing out. The expansive high over the SW
CONUS will also remain where it is but there is some signs of it
bulging eastward after a Hudson Bay low kicks out to the east by mid
week. This bulging eastward is what we always refer to as a ridge.
The ridging will make it as far east as central TX starting mid week
and it stays over that area through the remainder of the week. We
should see a bit more storms firing around this ridging setting up
the ring of fire type of scenario. There won't be a lot of changes
for our area with respect to sh/ts percentages and heat, but to our
west, it will not be comfortable at all. Under the ridge, dew pts
drop to the 40s and low 50s with suppression causing temps to
rage upward to 100+F. Basically very dry and very hot. We should
not see a lot of difference in highs unless this ridge is not
being advertised properly in current model runs. We normally do
get into a few weeks of intense heat at some point during the
summer and this set up may begin to hint at that later this month.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026
VFR conditions will continue to prevail at all of the terminals.
The only concern will be the risk of afternoon thunderstorm
development, generally peaking between 17z and 23z. If a storm
impacts a terminal, a brief period of gusty winds to 30 mph,
lightning strikes, reduced visibilities of 1 to 5 miles, and
ceilings around 2500 feet can be expected. Any impacts will
typically last 30 minutes or less. The only terminal with high
enough convective chances today to warrant mention in the
forecast is HUM, and a PROB30 group is included to reflect this
convective risk between 18z and 21z.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026
Through the weekend and into next week, flow of up to 10 knots
varying between southerly and easterly will keep seas of 1 to 2 feet
in place across all of the waters. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will fire up each day in the early morning hours
before moving inland by the afternoon hours. These storms will
produce lightning strikes, heavy downpours, a few waterspouts, and
locally higher winds and waves. Overall, a very typical pattern
will be in place for early August.
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...PG
Source: LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 8, 12:33 AM CDT ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202608080533-KLIX-FXUS64-AFDLIX)
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