MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 10, 12:44 AM CDT ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...
505
FXUS64 KMOB 100544
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1244 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1237 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026
- Isolated to scattered storms are expected through Tuesday.
- Heat indices around 100-107 degrees are expected through
Tuesday, increasing mid week on.
- A Moderate risk of rip currents returns to Florida beaches
he latter half of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026
Through Wednesday night, an upper ridge centered over the Florida
Peninsula shifts west over the northern Gulf Coast. A weakly
organized surface ridge builds west over the northern Gulf/Gulf
coast, with a light southerly flow shifting to south to southwest.
Guidance is advertising moisture levels over the forecast area
starting in the 2.0"-2.2" range. Even with the advancing upper
ridge, weak shortwave impulses embedded in the ridge will allow
scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms Monday to form over
the forecast area. As the forecast progresses into mid week,
alternating bands of drier air will pass over the forecast area.
Combined with increasing upper subsidence from the shifting upper
ridge, PoPs are inconsistent, with isolated convection Tuesday.
Isolated to scattered storms are expected Wednesday, mainly over the
eastern half of the forecast area, with a shortwave passing over the
eastern half of the Southeast. This convection is expected to be in
the afternoon over land areas. Late night/early morning rain showers
and thunderstorm are expected to develop over the Gulf, with warm
Gulf waters providing good near surface instability. Pulse type
strong to marginally severe storms are possible in the afternoon,
with MLCapes in the 2000-2500J/kg range and DCapes around 1000J/kg.
As the upper ridge passes over/near the forecast area into mid week,
the increasing upper subsidence will bring high temperatures
increasingly above seasonal norms. Low to mid 90s Monday rise into
the mid to upper 90s by Wednesday. Heat indices rise in response,
from the 100-107 degree range Monday into the 102 to 110 degree
range Wednesday, along with an increasing need for Heat Advisories
into mid week. Low temperatures rise from the low to mid 70s Monday
night into the mid to upper 70s Wednesday night. Low temperatures
along coast continue to fall in the upper 70s to near 80 through the
period.
Thursday on, the upper ridge over the northern Gulf coast meanders
slowly west and builds a bit. High temperatures rise into the 95 to
100 degree range by the end of the week, with Heat Indices creeping
up a bit in response. PoPs see a bit of an uptick into the weekend,
but with the upper ridge over/near the forecast area and moisture
levels inconsistent, this uptick is small, and PoPs remain below
seasonal norms.
Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, a general Low
Risk is expected into mid week, with the onshore flow less
organized. An uptick to a low Moderate is indicated for the end of
the week, especially over our Florida beaches.
/16
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast. Scattered showers
are expected to develop across the Alabama coast late tonight into
Monday, followed by showers and thunderstorms developing by late
morning and afternoon. MVFR ceilings, brief IFR visibilities, and
gusty winds to 35 knots are expected in the stronger storms. Winds
for all TAF sites will start off calm to light and variable,
becoming southeasterly to southerly at 5-10 knots by late morning as
a sea-breeze pushes inland. /22
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026
No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas
possible near thunderstorms.
/16
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 75 92 75 93 / 0 20 0 10
Pensacola 78 91 79 92 / 10 20 0 20
Destin 79 90 80 91 / 0 10 0 10
Evergreen 73 94 74 94 / 10 20 10 30
Waynesboro 74 96 74 97 / 10 20 10 10
Camden 74 92 75 92 / 10 20 10 30
Crestview 73 94 74 94 / 0 20 0 30
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Source: MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 10, 12:44 AM CDT ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202608100544-KMOB-FXUS64-AFDMOB)
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