WCO issues Area Hydrological Discussion (AHD) at Aug 12, 7:11 AM CDT
269
AGUS74 KWCO 121218
AHDNWC
Area Hydrological Discussion #179 - EXPERIMENTAL
NWS National Water Center - Tuscaloosa, AL
711 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026
POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Considerable flash, urban, and small stream
flooding expected
WHERE: Eastern Indiana, western Ohio, and northeastern Kentucky
WHEN: Through mid afternoon
FORECAST RAINFALL AND ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...
QPF: 1 - 3", locally higher (HRRR/RRFS/NAM, 6 hr)
QPE: Widespread 2 - 4", locally 6+" in eastern IN (MRMS, 12 hr)
Rates: 1 - 2" / hr (MRMS)
Soil Moisture: 45 - 70% (0 - 10 cm RSM, NASA SPoRT)
Streamflows: Normal to above normal (USGS)
DISCUSSION...
Considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts are
expected to continue through early this afternoon as ongoing
convection continues to backbuild and train across the area of
concern. Many areas near the Indiana/Ohio border in particular have
received over 4" of rainfall over the past 12 hours, leaving this
region especially sensitive. As a result, any additional rainfall
will immediately runoff, leading to additional rapid stream rises on
area streams and creeks as well as considerable flooding impacts in
urban areas. Isolated minor to moderate river flooding is expected
across southeastern Indiana. Guidance from the HRRR-forced National
Water Model is indicating scattered to widespread small stream
responses across the area of concern with peak flows expected by
early this afternoon. Forecast annual exceedance probabilities from
the High Flow Magnitude Forecast, as well as forecast unit discharge
values, supports the idea of continued significant stream rises and
high runoff to basin area values, particularly in areas along the
Indiana/Ohio border and near urban centers such as Louisville,
Cincinnati, and Frankfort through this afternoon, increasing
confidence in the likelihood of considerable flooding impacts. A
subsequent AHD will likely be warranted as additional rounds of
storms are expected across the area of concern by late afternoon.
GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION weather.gov/owp/operations-ahd
Additional National Water Center products are available at
weather.gov/owp/operations
//JDP
ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LMK...JKL
ATTN...RFC...TIR...WPC
Source: WCO issues Area Hydrological Discussion (AHD) at Aug 12, 7:11 AM CDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202608121211-KWCO-AGUS74-AHDNWC)
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