Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #970 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
101
AWUS01 KWNH 080143
FFGMPD
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-080700-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0970
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
941 PM EDT Fri Aug 07 2026
Areas affected...eastern IN into OH/northern KY
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 080140Z - 080700Z
Summary...Areas of flash flooding will be possible from parts of
eastern IN into OH and possibly northern portions of KY through
07Z. Training will support hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches with
isolated totals of 2 to 4 inches.
Discussion...Radar imagery through 0115Z showed an increase in the
coverage of scattered thunderstorms over eastern IN, located just
on the cool side of a remnant outflow boundary that extended from
just northeast of Indianapolis, IN into northeastern KY. Water
vapor imagery showed an approaching shortwave trough from WI to
eastern MO, advancing eastward, with about 15-20 kt of 925-850 mb
flow in place from the OH River into central IN/OH, out ahead of
the shortwave trough. Central IN seemed to have both the high
moisture (1.8 inch PW) and notable instability (2100 J/kg MLCAPE)
seen on the ILX and ILN soundings, but ILX was drier and ILN was
more stable.
As the upstream shortwave continues to advance east over the next
6 hours, RAP guidance shows the 925-850 mb flow out ahead
increasing into the 20-30 kt range over IN/OH/northern KY. The
increasing ascent ahead of the shortwave and isentropic lift over
the remnant outflow boundary should allow for increasing
thunderstorm coverage across eastern IN into OH over the next 3-6
hours. Areas of stability currently present over southern OH due
to earlier rainfall are expected to destabilize later tonight with
the advection of low level moisture back into the region. While
850-300 mb mean layer winds are progressive from the W to WSW a
20-25 kt, the increasing low level jet of nearly a similar
orientation could support some repeating and training of any
smaller thunderstorm clusters that develop. The environment will
be supportive of hourly rainfall between 1 and 2 inches with
isolated storm totals of 2-4 inches. With much of the area
containing 3-hr flash flood guidance values of around 2 inches,
some areas of flash flooding may occur through 07Z.
Otto
...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IND...IWX...LMK...PBZ...RLX...
ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...
LAT...LON 41748217 41298189 40688192 39428248 38668369
38588448 38698582 39268674 40298659 40978573
41348359
Source: Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #970 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE (https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=970&yr=2026)
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