LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 3, 7:58 PM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...
448
FXUS63 KLMK 032358
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
758 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Aside from a couple garden variety showers and possibly (15%
chance) a thunderstorm across areas mainly east of I-65 Wednesday
afternoon, dry weather should persist through Thursday.
* Thunderstorm chances, along with summer warmth and humidity, will
increase later this week, peaking at 40-60% Friday into Saturday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 119 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026
***** THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT *****
At 1pm EDT Monday, a cutoff low was spinning over northwest Georgia,
while shortwave ridging was poking into central KY/southern IN in
its wake. Temperatures ranged from the lower-mid 70s east of a
roughly Glasgow to Lexington to upper 70s/lower 80s further
west where skies had become mostly clear. We'll likely add
another 1-3 degrees to these readings through mid-late
afternoon, but then with mostly clear skies overnight temps
should drop into the low-mid 60s.
Easterly flow on the north side of the low situated over Georgia
tomorrow may bring a couple thunder showers into areas near the
Cumberland Plateau, but HREF/REFS/NBM agree that coverage should be
minimal (less than 15%) and entirely east of a Burkesville to
Lexington line. That low will meander back northward on Wednesday,
providing weak surface convergence that may trigger a couple showers
and storms in areas mainly east of the I-65 corridor where surface
dewpoints are forecast to climb back into the low 70s. At this time,
NBM gives areas east of a roughly Bowling Green to Frankfort line
the best chances (40-60%) for garden-variety storms (highest east).
Temperatures both Tuesday and Wednesday are forecast to climb into
the mid to perhaps upper 80s - near to slightly below normal for
early August.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 119 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026
***** THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND *****
Global models and their respective ensembles agree that an expansive
trough will move into the area from the Northern Plains and Upper
Midwest late Thursday into Friday. Southwest flow ahead of this
system will bring deeper moisture and a slightly warmer airmass to
the Bluegrass state on Thursday, when NBM advertises a 30-60% chance
high temperatures surpass 90 degrees along and west of I-65 (highest
chances south of US 62). Precipitation chances roughly split the
area during the day, as the incoming trough axis remains upstream
across IL and the aforementioned cutoff low gets pushed
northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. However, Thursday night some
decaying convection may enter northern portions of the area.
Storm chances increase area wide by the end of the work week as a
couple shortwaves rounding the base of the upper level trough swing
through the region. Uncertainty surrounds the degree of
destabilization that may materialize each day due to potential for
cloud cover, but LREF mean wind shear runs at only 10-20 kt through
the weekend which should limit storm organization. Still, pop up
storms each afternoon and evening are a risk, with the highest
chances (40-60%) on Friday. Any storm could generate locally heavy
rain given PWATs approaching 2 inches, slow storm motion, and a deep
(> 13kft) warm cloud layer, but the probability of severe weather
- at least at this juncture - appears low (less than 15%).
Around the end of the forecast period, uncertainty increases in the
upper level pattern, with a dipole in Empirical Orthogonal Function
(EOF) 1 for 500mb heights suggesting this is primarily driven by
model variance in when ridging over the Intermountain West spreads
east into the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes. From cluster analysis, 2
broad solutions become apparent by Sunday-Monday: ~45% of long range
ensemble members depict ridging fully over KY/IN by Monday, favoring
heat indices in the triple digits and minimal chances for
precipitation; meanwhile the remaining members (55%) lean towards a
more zonal/northwest flow solution that would result in slightly
milder temperatures (mid 80s) and keep a risk for scattered storms
around, especially north of I-64. WPC's day 8-14 probabilistic
hazards outlook highlights the local area with a slight risk for
both heavy rainfall and extreme heat.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 758 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026
VFR flight categories are expected through the 00z forecast period
as high pressure will be in control over the region. There is just a
very small possibility of some patchy fog but there is just not a
strong signal in the models to put it in for our TAF sites.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...BTN
Source: LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 3, 7:58 PM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202608032358-KLMK-FXUS63-AFDLMK)
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