Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #929 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY
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Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0929
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
714 PM EDT Sun Aug 02 2026
Areas affected...Lower Great Lakes and Central Appalachians
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely
Valid 022314Z - 030400Z
SUMMARY...Clusters of thunderstorms ahead of a front over the
Great Lakes will continue to produce localized flash flooding
across the Central Appalachians into this evening.
DISCUSSION...A large and dynamic storm system moving into the
central Appalachians this evening continues to produce
thunderstorms ahead of the low center near Erie, PA. A tongue of
instability is noted on SPC Mesoanalysis extending into western
Pennsylvania and western New York. Bulk shear vectors are out of
the southwest at 30 kts. PWATs in the area are generally between
1.5 and 2 inches. This has allowed the clusters of storms to
produce flash flooding along the spine of the Appalachians in
northeastern Pennsylvania, and in widely scattered locations from
Pittsburgh south into West Virginia.
CAMs guidance shows the storms will continue congealing along the
front in northwestern Pennsylvania and western New York over the
next few hours, while more topographically enhanced convection
continues from northeastern Pennsylvania into central New York.
The two areas of storms begin to fill in across the Finger Lakes
region of western New York. FFGs are particularly low along the
spine of the Appalachians from southwest Pennsylvania through
south-central New York and the Catskills. It is in these areas
where continued shower and thunderstorm activity over the next few
hours is expected to continue producing localized flash flooding.
The Finger Lakes region into central New York has a bit higher
FFGs (above 1.5 in/hr), and with a local minimum of rainfall
expected there, flash flooding instances will be much more
isolated there.
Urban and small stream flooding in urban areas including Buffalo
and Scranton are most likely, as well as in flood prone areas
where the topography acts to enhance flash flooding severity.
Wegman
...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CLE...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...
ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...
LAT...LON 43477880 43367680 43297647 43197583 42887537
42607507 42237494 41907513 41597528 41327567
40497742 40087842 39067958 38538001 38418024
38648071 39078117 40338054 41558054 42148024
Source: Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #929 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY (https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=929&yr=2026)
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