JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 2, 1:42 PM EDT
580
FXUS63 KJKL 021742
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
142 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There is still a potential for damaging wind gusts with today's
storms in far eastern Kentucky.
- A slow-moving weather system keeps daily shower and storm
chances, along with some heavy rain potential, in the forecast
through Tuesday.
- Somewhat drier and warmer weather returns Wednesday through
Friday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 106 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
No significant changes were made to the forecast. Incorporated the
latest observational data from around the region into the T/Td
grids.
UPDATE Issued at 625 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky/PoP
grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers along with a freshening of the zones.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 445 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
08Z sfc analysis shows an unseasonably deep area of low pressure
spinning over the heart of the Ohio Valley. This system's
warm/occluded front has pushed well into the JKL CWA early this
morning with a broken band of showers and a few lingering
thunderstorms found along it. This has also supported a high
moisture and muggy environment for eastern Kentucky through the
night with mild temperatures in place. Additionally, clearing is
working into the western parts of the CWA in the form of the
larger system's dry slot leading to the formation of low clouds
and patchy areas of fog - locally dense. Otherwise, winds are
generally light from the south to southwest while temperatures and
dewpoints are fairly uniform in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, remain in pretty
good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict a sharp 5h trough slowly working east
through the Ohio Valley and filling while extending into the Deep
South quite impressively for this time of year. The axis of this
trough will work east of the state on Monday morning while lower
heights remain for the area and this anomaly threatens to break
off as a weakness south of the JKL CWA. On account of the small
spread in the model's solutions aloft into the start of the new
work week, the NBM was used as the starting point of the forecast
grids. Again some adjustments were needed for the PoPs and
thunder chances today through Monday afternoon with enhancement
from the latest consensus CAMs guidance.
Sensible weather will feature another unsettled day with a good
potential for showers and thunderstorms. The far eastern portion
of the CWA will be under the gun for a better potential of strong
to severe storms as the environment parameters will be somewhat
favorable for organized development during the day. These
include building CAPE towards 1000 J/kg and up to triple digit low
level SRH values. The latest CAMs keep the UH swaths rather banal,
though, so it seems this will be a conditional threat at best.
The potential for training of the convection will continue a
concern for localized flash flooding, as well. For tonight, the
convection intensity and coverage should be on the wane but low
clouds and the development of fog will also be on the docket.
Then, Monday, we will see more in the way of scattered showers and
thunderstorms with little ingredients progged to enable strong to
severe storms also limiting the concerns for flooding at least
temporarily. Temperatures will continue to be on the cool side of
normal for highs today and Monday but still mild tonight due to
continued high moisture content and clouds.
The main adjustments to the NBM starting point were to include
the latest CAMs consensus solution for the PoPs and thunder
potential from the higher resolution and more recent solutions
through Monday evening. Temperatures and dewpoints where not
changed much from the NBM given the moist environment in place
through the start of the new work week.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 510 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
The first part of the extended will be dealing with the rare 5h
low over the Deep South as it gradually fills but not before it
keeps things unsettled for eastern Kentucky through at least mid
week. A more active jet stream to the north follows into the
upcoming weekend but whether any systems can take advantage of
this to reach into Kentucky and help to clear out the leftover
moisture remains to be seen. As such, we anticipated unsettled
activity through the rest of the week though adhering to more of a
diurnal pattern.
The previous long term discussion follows:
The long wave pattern will remain stagnant and amplified over the
CONUS next week. Two strong upper level high pressure systems will
be centering over Bermuda and the Four Corners region with time.
Meanwhile, a slow-moving trough will initially be laid out near or
just west of the Appalachians, keeping unsettled weather in place
across the region early next week. The trough will dampen by mid-
week, as higher geopotential heights spread west towards the
Eastern Seaboard from the Bermuda high center. In tandem, higher
geopotential heights will work east of the Mississippi River from
the Four Corners high center. Additionally, cyclonic flow will
overspread the north central CONUS from a deeper upper level low
that will be gyring over Hudson Bay. This will likely result in
any frontal systems remaining generally north of the Ohio Valley
into next weekend, and while diurnally-influenced PoPs will
remain in the forecast, coverage will likely be more scattered in
nature for the latter half of next week.
Eastern Kentucky will start out under the influence of an upper
level trough, keeping higher rain chances in place through at
least Tuesday. PWATs will not be excessively high (LREF mean
values of 50-75th percentile of climatology); however, high
freezing levels and slower storm motions of 10 to 15 kts will keep
at least a marginal heavy rainfall threat in place at times.
Temperatures will average near seasonal normals for early August,
with highs in the lower 80s and lows in the mid 60s, with
elevated humidity levels. As we come more under the influence of
the ridging aloft, rain chances will generally decrease, with
convection becoming more scattered in nature each day, especially
from Thursday through Saturday. Temperatures will creep up a bit
through next weekend, peaking in the mid to upper 80s. Lows will
also moderate through the upper 60s to near 70, with higher
humidity levels continuing across the area.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
A cold front is lying over the eastern third of the JKL CWA. Showers
and storms are expected to redevelop for most TAF sites by midday
- diminishing in the evening. The strongest of the storms should
stay east of all but the KSJS terminal. Low clouds and sub IFR
visibility in fog is anticipated late tonight. Away from any
storms, winds will generally be light and variable through the
period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GINNICK
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JKL/GREIF
AVIATION...GINNICK/GREIF
Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 2, 1:42 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202608021742-KJKL-FXUS63-AFDJKL)
---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!