Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #919 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY
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AWUS01 KWNH 012308
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WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-020500-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0919...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
708 PM EDT Sat Aug 01 2026
Corrected for Graphic
Areas affected...Portions of Indiana and Ohio
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely
Valid 012300Z - 020500Z
SUMMARY...Training thunderstorms will cause additional flash
flooding over portions of the Ohio Valley into this evening.
DISCUSSION...A complex of strong thunderstorms tracking across
eastern Indiana this evening will continue to push north and
eastward into this evening. The storms have a history of rainfall
rates to 3 inches per hour, and they will likely maintain that
intensity for the next few hours, especially over portions of
eastern Indiana to the northeast of Indianapolis.
A strong low near Indianapolis is moving ESE across central
Indiana. Ahead of the low a strong occluded front is forcing a
strong line of storms, which extends well south into Kentucky.
These storms are approaching Dayton and Cincinnati. They will move
through over the next hour or so, with urban and small stream
flash flooding possible.
More consequently, the storms that are currently near I-70 between
the Ohio border and Indianapolis are expected to struggle to move
too much further north, as the low center tracks ESE. This will
make for a scenario where the storms become nearly stationary,
likely extending in a line that orients NE to SW. HREF flash flood
exceedance guidance in eastern Indiana shows that there is a 60%
chance of exceeding 3 hrly FFGs through 00Z, staying above 40% in
a portion of eastern Indiana through 03Z, then above 20% through
06Z. This follows with the loss of daytime heating that the storms
should weaken with time.
SPC Mesoanalysis over Ohio shows PWATs over 1.8 inches over much
of the discussion area, with a nose of MLCAPE exceeding 2,000 J/kg
over the same area. This will support the line of storms entering
western Ohio to maintain itself, which is well supported in the
CAMs guidance. The further south one goes, the more progressive
the storms will be, so the flash flooding threat towards the Ohio
River should be lesser than areas further north towards Dayton and
eventually Columbus. As the storms move into northern Ohio later
this evening, FFGs increase considerably. The combination of those
higher FFGs and weakening storms should begin to lessen the flash
flooding threat.
Wegman
...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IND...IWX...JKL...LOT...RLX...
ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...
LAT...LON 41188690 41178501 40898403 40568349 40368318
40068230 38938216 38368261 37868294 37888312
37928358 38368380 38738438 38888459 39558556
39698608 39738659 39508695 39538733 39508748
40138748 40458747 41028733
Source: Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #919 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY (https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=919&yr=2026)
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