Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #877 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY
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Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0877
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1247 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026
Areas affected...Southeastern New York through Western New England
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely
Valid 281646Z - 282245Z
SUMMARY...Numerous thunderstorms have developed across portions of
New York into New England. Flash flooding is likely as the storms
interact with the terrain.
DISCUSSION...Numerous thunderstorms have formed in several
clusters from central New York through portions of western New
England this afternoon. These clusters have a history of producing
multiple-inch-per-hour rainfall rates. Duration has also been a
distinguishing factor as some portions of central New York have
seen heavy rainfall for several hours. The clusters of storms have
developed ahead of a strong upper level negatively tilted trough,
on the leading edge of a potent low level jet advecting high PWATs
to 1.5 to 1.75 inches right into eastern New York and western New
England. With plentiful terrain in these areas, the combination of
upslope into the south-facing slopes of the mountains, heavy rain
that's likely to persist for multiple hours, and plentiful
moisture allowing storms to train and backbuild will all combine
to make flash flooding likely in this region through the
afternoon.
While the heaviest rain has been in Central New York thus far,
streamers of storms will fill in most areas in eastern New York
over to western New England through the afternoon as peak heating
and instability advection both increase the coverage, severity,
and duration of the strongest storms. Urban and small stream
flooding are most likely, especially off the south-facing slopes
of the mountains and in the urban areas subject to the longer
durations of heavy rainfall. Locally significant flash flooding
can't be ruled out.
High resolution CAMs guidance suggests the most persistent rains
will be in the western areas from Binghamton up I-88, and for
eastern areas from western Connecticut into southern Vermont from
I-91 west. There remains some uncertainty for the Catskills
through the Hudson Valley, where southerly flow may limit the
convective coverage since terrain won't necessarily help
concentrate the heaviest rainfall, and storms to the south may
limit how much instability can advect into that area.
Wegman
...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BOX...BTV...GYX...OKX...PHI...
ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...
LAT...LON 43957288 43157243 42467213 41767207 41417244
41387304 41357405 41327467 41417475 41537502
41507557 41597608 42097667 42927578 43677401
Source: Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #877 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY (https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=877&yr=2026)
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