IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 24, 10:45 AM EDT
103
FXUS63 KIWX 241445
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1045 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Gradually warmer over the next several days. Hot and humid
with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s by Sunday and Monday.
- A couple rounds of rain and storms are possible late Sunday
through early Tuesday (30-60% chance of showers/storms).
Severe weather is possible but low confidence on exact details
at this time.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1045 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026
A decaying area of showers is noted over far western Illinois late
this morning, slowly drifting east, and NWS Chicago is reporting
sprinkles. Progress will be limited, however, due to a stout
dry layer below 18,000 ft courtesy of retreating high pressure
now over northeast PA. I did note that some HRRR runs attempt to
bring light rain to the far southwest forecast area. While
forecast soundings attempt to saturate in the upper- levels, dry
air elsewhere in the profile preclude introducing any showers
to today's forecast. Instead, variable cloudiness today with
high temperatures just a touch warmer than yesterday thanks to
southerly return flow on aformentioned high pressure.
The primary periods of interest continue to be Sunday night and
Monday night with the risk of severe thunderstorms, and the hot,
humid conditions. A 598dm ridge over the Four Corners amplifies
by this time, spreading a 50-70 knot 500-mb jet over the Great
Lakes. This, amid a hot, humid environment yields very large
CAPE values and bulk shear near 40 knots. These items await a
trigger for convection in the form of an upper-level vorticity
maximum, the incoming upper-level jet, or, more likely,
lingering MCVs or outflow boundaries from prior convection.
These finer details are a bit futile to chase at this distance
and remain to be seen, so, messaging and uncertainty carry on
largely unchanged. Given the anticipated storm mode (squall line
or MCS), damaging wind gusts would be the primary hazard Sunday
night and again Monday night.
Behind these storm chances, upper-level troughing over the eastern
Great Lakes nudges the Four Corners ridge westward giving us a break
from heat and storms. However, there are indications the ridge
builds to the east through the week, renewing our local chance of
storms.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 600 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026
No changes for the 12Z TAFs. High pressure overhead continues
to keep conditions dry. Widespread mid to high level clouds
continue to advect in from the west this morning. Skies will be
partly to mostly cloudy through the afternoon, but VFR ceilings
are expected to prevail. Skies clear out this evening before
sunset. Winds will be light and variable through today and
tonight.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Brown
AVIATION...Johnson
Source: IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 24, 10:45 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202607241445-KIWX-FXUS63-AFDIWX)
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