PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 15, 6:17 PM CDT
375
FXUS63 KPAH 152317
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
617 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hot and humid conditions will continue with heat indices
peaking Saturday through Tuesday in the upper 90s to around
105 degrees.
- Chances of showers and thunderstorms mainly during the daytime
hours will be 30% to 60% across the entire area Thursday. On
Friday and Saturday, higher chances of 50% to 80% will be east
of the Mississippi River, tapering down to 20% in the Ozark
Foothills.
- 20-40% chances of showers and storms can be expected Sunday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 610 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026
Updated aviation discussion for 00z TAFs.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026
Warm and humid conditions will persist through the end of the
week and through the weekend into early next week. Persistent
southerly flow will result in near to a little above normal
temperatures and a little higher humidity over the weekend into
Tuesday, and through this period we will see afternoon heat
indices in the upper 90s to around 105 degrees. Models indicate
the heat and humidity will improve Wednesday.
A weak surface low to our southwest will help keep chances of
showers and storms across southeast Missouri and most of west
Kentucky and southern Illinois into this evening. Mainly heat of
the day chances (30-60%) of showers and thunderstorms will
return Thursday across our entire region as the weak surface
low moves northeast. On Friday, and upper level trof will extend
through the Great Lakes region into the middle Mississippi and
lower Ohio valleys, increasing chances to 50-80% east of the
Mississippi River, tapering down to 20% in the Ozark Foothills
of southeast Missouri. Isolated showers and storms will remain
possible Friday night, then daytime heating will again ramp up
the chances on Saturday to 50-70% in southwest Indiana and west
Kentucky, with 20-40% chances in southern Illinois and southeast
Missouri. Due to the scattered nature of convection, average
precipitation totals will be less than half an inch, but
individual storms may produce brief heavy rain, resulting in
localized higher amounts. The upper trof will move farther east
by late in the weekend, so Sunday afternoon chances will max out
in the 20-40% range. Beyond Sunday, minimal chances are
expected.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 610 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026
Isolated convection will linger through some of the evening
before ending. Additional scattered showers and storms are
likely to develop by midday through the afternoon on Thursday,
and this time could impact the northeastern terminals as well.
Brief MVFR conditions are possible with any convection. Another
concern this TAF cycle will be fog development overnight,
particularly across southeast Missouri and parts of southern
Illinois that received the heaviest rain today.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SP
DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...SP
Source: PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 15, 6:17 PM CDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202607152317-KPAH-FXUS63-AFDPAH)
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