PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 15, 2:35 AM CDT
860
FXUS63 KPAH 150735
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
235 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Highs slowly trend warmer, reaching the lower 90s over the
weekend.
- Daily chances of showers and storms are forecast this week,
primarily during the afternoon hours, with the highest chances
across southwestern portions of the forecast area today,
shifting to the northeast for Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026
Broad strong upper ridging across most of the United States is
streaming extreme heat across the northern tier of the country.
Surface high pressure covers the Ohio River Valley while a weak
low pressure system in the Mid-South is resulting in a few
showers moving into southern portions of the Quad State from the
southeast. A west-east boundary is set up in the Deep South.
The Mid-South disturbance slowly meanders in the ridge, drifting
closer and resulting in broader coverage of showers/storms this
afternoon, primarily in the southwestern portions of the Quad
State. Daily precip chances spread out more Thursday and then
shift to favoring the Evansville Tri-State on Friday. Convection
will primarily be diurnally driven, with plenty of CAPE but
trivial shear. The spotty nature of showers will limit training
potential but high PWs and plenty of surface moisture (dew
points around 75 degrees) will result in brief very heavy
rainfall rates.
Low pressure moving through the Great Lakes Friday night may
interact with the drifting disturbance and increase coverage
before drifting eastward out of the area. Warm advection over
the weekend as high pressure sets up in the Deep South, along
with reduced cloud coverage with lower PoPs, will lift highs
over the weekend to the lower 90s with heat index values in the
lower 100s. Troughing over the Great Lakes early next week may
bring a cold front into the Quad State but its influence could
be limited depending on how far east the western/Plains ridge
spreads.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1053 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026
Isolated showers and perhaps a few storms may continue through
the night across our south. We will see an uptick in convection
by midday into the afternoon on Wednesday, with the most likely
terminals to be impacted being KCGI/KPAH. Lower confidence for
KMVN but kept PROB30 mention in for now. Can't rule out some
patchy ground fog overnight, particularly across the south.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...SP
Source: PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 15, 2:35 AM CDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202607150735-KPAH-FXUS63-AFDPAH)
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