MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 13, 6:53 PM CDT ...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
988
FXUS64 KMOB 132353
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
653 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 653 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026
- Numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected
through Tuesday, with periods of heavy rainfall that may lead
to localized flooding. Any stronger storms will also be
capable of producing gusty winds and frequent lightning.
- A High risk of rip currents develops along the Northwest
Florida beaches today through Tuesday. A Moderate risk
continues for the remainder of area beaches through Friday.
- Hotter conditions return Wednesday through the end of the
week, with afternoon heat indices climbing back into the
triple digits.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 653 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026
We are monitoring a line of thunderstorms entering into the
northern portion of our forecast area. Radar base velocities and
surface observations are indicating some gusty winds to 30-40 mph
with the stronger convection. Recent Convective Allowing Models
(CAMs) do show this convection weakening through the evening hours
before dissipating near the Highway-84 corridor. We do not
anticipate any severe storms with this line, but may be issuing
Special Weather Statements from time to time. /22
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026
A broad upper low with an associated surface low continues to
drift slowly southward into northeast Alabama and northwest
Georgia. Meanwhile, the low-level convergence boundary that
resulted in numerous showers with locally heavy rainfall near the
coast this morning has drifted well offshore, leaving widespread
cloud cover and areas of light to occasionally moderate rain
across southern portions of the forecast area. The persistent
clouds and rainfall have kept temperatures unseasonably cool, with
a couple spots remaining in the 70s. Because low-level
convergence and instability have been limited over land, the
potential for heavy rainfall and localized flooding has decreased
for much of the area. The main focus for heavier showers and
storms this afternoon and evening should remain over northern
portions of the area, generally north of Highway 84, where some
destabilization closer to the low pressure center is occurring.
Elsewhere, expect widespread cloud cover and a few showers to
continue, but cannot rule out redevelopment of a few heavier
showers and storms by late afternoon with a very moist and
saturated atmospheric profile in place.
By Tuesday, the surface low is expected to begin drifting westward
from central AL into MS and the coastal convergence boundary will
be pushing well offshore. Compared to today, less cloud cover
should allow for greater destabilization across inland ares, and
when combined with lingering high atmospheric moisture, will
support numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms over the
interior, with more scattered coverage expected closer to the
coast. A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall
remains in place areawide for Tuesday to account for any training
or slow-moving storms that develop, which may lead to localized
flash flooding. Any stronger storms will also be capable of
producing frequent lightning and gusty winds.
Rain chances decrease noticeably by Wednesday and Thursday (with
isolated to scattered coverage at best) as the upper low
retrogrades westward and upper ridging builds over the northern
Gulf. Hotter conditions will return during the latter half of the
week, with highs climbing back into the low to mid 90s and heat
indices topping out in the upper 90s to 107 range.
Predictability decreases heading into the weekend as guidance
indicates increased moisture approaching from the east and a
cutoff low developing over the southeastern states and potentially
into the northeast Gulf. Considerable uncertainty exists
regarding how far west this system ultimately tracks, but it bears
watching as it could lead to some increasing rain chances this
weekend.
At the beaches, a High risk of rip currents continues along the
Northwest Florida beaches through Tuesday night. A Moderate risk
of rip currents continues for the remainder of the Alabama and
western Florida Panhandle beaches through Friday. JGC/98
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 653 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026
VFR conditions will prevail through Tuesday afternoon outside of
brief reductions in ceilings and visibilities in and around
showers and thunderstorms. Light westerly winds will continue with
brief gusty winds to 35 knots possible with the stronger storms.
/22
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026
A moderate to occasionally strong westerly flow is expected
through this evening, transitioning to a light to occasionally
moderate general westerly flow through the remainder of the week.
Seas 3 to 5 feet through early Tuesday will settle to 2 to 4 feet
by Tuesday, and remaining generally 2 feet or less for the
remainder of the week. Expect higher winds and seas in and around
thunderstorms, which may be numerous to widespread once again on
Tuesday morning. JGC/98
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 71 87 71 90 / 20 50 20 10
Pensacola 74 87 75 91 / 30 40 50 20
Destin 76 87 77 89 / 60 60 50 20
Evergreen 69 86 69 90 / 30 80 40 30
Waynesboro 71 85 70 89 / 50 70 40 30
Camden 70 83 69 87 / 70 80 60 40
Crestview 70 87 70 91 / 30 70 40 30
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ631-632-650-
655-670-675.
&&
$$
Source: MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 13, 6:53 PM CDT ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202607132353-KMOB-FXUS64-AFDMOB)
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