JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 14, 3:30 AM EDT
662
FXUS63 KJKL 140730
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
330 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures can be expected through Friday, with
highs returning to the upper 80s and lower 90s by Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
Temperatures range in the mid 60s to near 70F early this morning
across eastern Kentucky. Satellite shows tendrils of fog expanding
through the deeper river valleys. Additionally, a few high clouds
are drifting overhead. At the surface, a weak ~1017 mb low pressure
is situated over Alabama and Mississippi. Meanwhile, high
pressure ridging extends from Virginia across the Ohio Valley to
over Nebraska and Kansas. Looking aloft, an ~600 dam high,
centered near or over Minneapolis/St. Paul, MN, extends from the
Great Lakes to over the Colorado River Basin.
The upper-level high will elongate and shift southeastward to over
Virginia by late tonight and then weaken on Wednesday. Meanwhile,
the surface high pressure will settle southward and then become
more amorphous with time. During this time period, 850 hPa
temperatures will rise from around 17 to 18C this morning to 19
to 21C by late Wednesday, which will manifest in a warming trend.
In sensible terms, look for valley fog to lift and dissipate after
sunrise. A very warm and mostly sunny day will follow with an
extensive cumulus field developing across the southern half of the
CWA. It will be warm with highs in the mid to upper 80s while dew
points hold comfortably in the 60s for most locations. Mostly
clear skies follow tonight with lows dipping back into the 60s.
Fog is likely to form again in the sheltered valleys. Looking
ahead to Wednesday, the fair weather will continue with afternoon
temperatures rising into the upper 80s to lower 90s.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 628 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
The models agree on an amplified and rather stagnant pattern to
dominate over the majority of the CONUS through most of the
extended portion of the forecast. A stout upper high starts out
centered over the Midwest. Ridging will be sprawled through the
northern/central Plains to west northwest of the center, while
east southeastern extent covers through the Great Lakes/Ohio
Valley and over the Mid-Atlantic region. Meanwhile, a deep upper
low will be pinwheeling over northern Quebec, with tight cyclonic
flow fanned southward through the Saint Lawrence River Valley and
into northern New England. This ridge will generally dominate
across the Ohio Valley through at least Friday, before breaking
down this weekend, as broader cyclonic flow eventually infiltrates
from the north with time. Details on the evolution and transition
of the pattern shift across our region remain low confidence,
with plenty of model spread.
Sensible weather will feature a return to seasonably hot
temperatures and mainly dry conditions across most of eastern
Kentucky from Wednesday through Friday. Some isolated convection
will be possible across the Cumberland Plateau and vicinity both
Thursday and Friday afternoons. Highs each day will top out in the
upper 80s to lower 90s, with peak heat indices perhaps exceeding
100 degrees at times for a few locations. This weekend, as the
ridge gives way to troughing aloft, better convective coverage is
expected, generally peaking in the afternoon and early evening
timeframe. A surface cold front will also be in play, likely
approaching from the north. Again, confidence in timing these
specifics is pretty low at this point. Highs will cool off to the
upper 80s by Sunday, and mid 80s by Monday. Lows most nights will
range from the mid to upper 60s to around 70, with modest
ridge/valley splits through Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 144 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail throughout the
period. Winds will be light and variable, with just scattered
passing high clouds early this morning. One possible exception
will be fog formation for valleys and where rain fell yesterday,
though modest easterly flow just above ground level should tend to
inhibit fog formation at more exposed terminals, including the
TAF sites. Any fog should dissipate shortly after sunrise,
ushering in another day of VFR conditions and light winds. The
typical scattered cumulus is expected to develop by the
afternoon, especially across the southern half of the forecast
area.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...GEERTSON
Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 14, 3:30 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202607140730-KJKL-FXUS63-AFDJKL)
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