IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 14, 1:49 AM EDT
313
FXUS63 KIND 140549
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
149 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Generally dry weather and a steady warming trend mid to late week
- Peak heat indices around 100 degrees each afternoon mid-late week
- Chances for showers and storms return Friday through the weekend,
primarily during the afternoon and evening
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 936 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026
Forecast is in good shape this evening with clear to mostly clear
skies and quiet weather across central Indiana. With high pressure
in control, quiet weather will continue. Tweaked low temperatures in
some rural areas based on latest trends, but no significant changes
were made to the forecast.
&&
.DISCUSSION (This evening through Monday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026
This afternoon through Thursday night...
Model guidance depicts upper ridging and surface high pressure
remaining centered across the central CONUS. These features will
provide quiet weather during the first half of the forecast period.
Gradually increasing 850mb temperatures from the upper ridge
shifting overhead combined with deeper moisture returning northward
towards the middle of the week may lead to heat indices as high as
100 degrees or a few degrees above, primarily Wednesday or
Thursday afternoon.
Expect light and variable winds at times due to a weak pressure
gradient from the surface high. The weak flow leaves some
uncertainty on how high dewpoints will be towards the middle or end
of this week as moisture could be slow to return northward. How much
evapotranspiration occurs and the depth of diurnal mixing are other
factor to monitor in the coming days. Slightly higher dewpoints
could lead to portions of central Indiana approaching heat advisory
criteria. These trends will continue to be monitored closely.
Friday through the weekend...
Long range guidance is generally in good agreement regarding the
upper level pattern, but model solutions begin to diverge by this
point leading to lower confidence. Models generally depict the upper
level ridge breaking down while northwest flow and upper troughing
develops into the weekend. By Friday, deeper moisture will likely
already be in place with most models suggesting dewpoints in the low
70s. Daytime heating atop this humid airmass supports the potential
for scattered diurnal convection as large scale subsidence from the
aforementioned ridge weakens.
A shortwave passing through the region late Saturday through early
Sunday will provide another opportunity for showers and
thunderstorms, primarily Saturday afternoon into the evening hours.
Low chances for convection linger into Sunday, but this will depend
on the strength of the system moving in late Saturday. A more
organized low pressure system like the GFS is suggesting would
filter in drier air behind the associated front resulting in more
tranquil weather. The ECMWF stalls the boundary just north of
central Indiana, keeping the warm-humid airmass in place along with
chances for convection. Exact details will remain uncertain until
models become better aligned.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 149 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026
Impacts:
- None
Discussion:
VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Thin cirrus will pass through at times, otherwise very few clouds
expected. Winds will be pretty light and variable at times,
especially at LAF where high pressure is centered over. Elsewhere
winds will generally start out from the NE and drift to out of the E
by this afternoon.
Cannot rule out some fog at KLAF 09-12Z but for now confidence is
not high enough to include.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...50
AVIATION...KF
DISCUSSION...Melo
Source: IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 14, 1:49 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202607140549-KIND-FXUS63-AFDIND)
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