MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 13, 12:53 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...
749
FXUS64 KMOB 131753
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1253 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1251 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026
- Numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected
through Tuesday, with periods of heavy rainfall that may lead
to localized flooding. Any stronger storms will also be
capable of producing gusty winds and frequent lightning.
- A High risk of rip currents develops along the Northwest
Florida beaches today through Tuesday. A Moderate risk
continues for the remainder of area beaches through Friday.
- Hotter conditions return Wednesday through the end of the
week, with afternoon heat indices climbing back into the
triple digits.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026
Through Wednesday...an upper level low organizes over the Southeast,
with a surface low organizing over central Ms/Al. With a very moist
airmass over the region (precipitable h20 values above 2") scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected each day, with
the higher PoPs north of Highway 84. With a focusing surface
boundary organizing on the west side of the surface low (somewhere
over central Ms/Al), along with southwesterly mid/upper levels flow,
the risk of flooding issues increases. Instability is modest at best
(MLCapes topping out around 1000J/kg on average), along with an
850mb jet over the forecast area and coast (around 30kts), bringing
a limited possibility of strong to severe storms. By Wednesday, the
center of upper low has shifted west of the Southeast. Guidance is
advertising a drier airmass moving north over the northern Gulf
coast. Rain chances decrease over the forecast area with the
decrease in moisture, though highest PoPs still remain over the
northern half of the forecast area. The usual afternoon inland/
night time along the coast and over the Gulf pattern returns for the
convection.
Looking at temperatures, below seasonal high temperatures in the
mid/upper 80s Monday and Tuesday rise into the upper 80s to around
90 for Wednesday. Low temperatures in the low to mid 70s, upper 70s
along the coast, are expected through Wednesday night. Heat indices
rise to around 100 for Wednesday.
Thursday through the weekend...guidance continues to advertise
shortwave energy meandering around over the Southeast. Drier air
continues to push over the Southeast for Thursday and Friday,
dropping the PoPs a bit more. Over the weekend, the region sees an
uptick in moisture levels as an upper trough organizes over the
region. PoPs increase in response. Some guidance is advertising
temperatures rising to above seasonal norms, whilst other keep
temperatures a bit below. Going with a compromise around seasonal,
when combined with the increase in moisture levels, heat indices
over the weekend rise into the 100-107 range over most of the
forecast area, with some localities seeing higher values.
Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, a moderate to
strong southwest to westerly flow combined with a large tidal range
will create a Moderate to High Rip Risk, with a higher risk on our
Florida beaches. The Rip Risk will ease by the end of the week to a
Low as the onshore flow decreases and tidal cycles shrinks.
/16
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026
VFR conditions prevail through much of the period outside of
brief reductions in ceilings and visibilities in and around
showers and thunderstorms. /13
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026
A coastal jet organizing along the coast Monday into Monday
night will bring a moderate to strong southwesterly flow mainly to
open Gulf waters later today into this evening. The upper system
causing this will move off to the west, bring a light to at times
moderate flow, with a daytime onshore, night time offshore regime
returning to area waters.
/16
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 71 87 71 90 / 20 50 20 10
Pensacola 74 87 75 91 / 30 40 50 20
Destin 76 87 77 89 / 60 60 50 20
Evergreen 69 86 69 90 / 30 80 40 30
Waynesboro 71 85 70 89 / 50 70 40 30
Camden 70 83 69 87 / 70 80 60 40
Crestview 70 87 70 91 / 30 70 40 30
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ631-632-650-
655-670-675.
&&
$$
Source: MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 13, 12:53 PM CDT ...New AVIATION... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202607131753-KMOB-FXUS64-AFDMOB)
---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!