CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 14, 1:37 AM EDT
612
FXUS61 KCLE 140537
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
137 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Opted to issue a Heat Advisory for Northwest Ohio and portions of
North Central Ohio for Tuesday. Additional Heat Advisories may be
needed for Wednesday.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Heat and humidity will build early this week with peak heat index
values in the mid 90s to low 100s.
2) Periodic showers and thunderstorms return late this week and
continue into the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Closed off 99th percentile mid/upper level high centered over the
Upper Midwest will gradually drift southward into the Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley region. Heat and humidity are expected to build
across the region Tuesday into Wednesday as 850mb temperatures, also
99th percentile, peak near 23-25C. Have issued a Heat Advisory for
Northwest Ohio and portions of North Central Ohio, including
Cuyahoga County, for Tuesday as heat index values rise to 100-103 F.
Another day of heat headlines will likely be needed on Wednesday for
a similar geographical extent, but opted to hold off on issuing for
Wednesday with this forecast package. Widespread Major HeatRisk
(Level 3 of 4) is expected both Tuesday and Wednesday. Ensure that
you remain hydrated and consider adjusting outdoor plans to the
cooler parts of the day.
The upper high will gradually flatten and dissipate over the Ohio
Valley mid/late this week. A cold front passes south Wednesday night
but it will remain warm with highs in the 90s. However, peak heat
index values will lower to the mid 90s for Thursday and Friday.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
The upper level ridge moves west as an upper level trough
and surface cold front sink south from the Northeast towards
the eastern Great Lakes near the end of the week. Shower and
thunderstorm chances will increase Friday evening through the
weekend in the wake of the cold front. Some thunderstorms this
weekend may reach strong to severe limits but confidence in
timing and extent remains low given lower confidence in
magnitude, track, and timing of the aforementioned upper level
trough.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
VFR conditions will be prevalent across the region with some
scattered high clouds expected through the TAF period. Winds will be
light and variable through 14-16Z today, then become predominately
out of the west-soutwest at 5-10 knots for the remainder of the TAF
period. KERI will see increased sustained winds at 10-15 knots and
gusts up to 20 knots with flow being off the lake. Gusts there
should diminish after 01Z tonight with sustained winds around 10
knots out of the southwest.
Outlook...VFR expected through Wednesday. Non-VFR visibility
possible Wednesday night and Thursday due to wildfire smoke.
Non-VFR likely starting Friday night in showers and
thunderstorms.
&&
.MARINE...
Conditions across Lake Erie will stay fairly quiet for the week as
high pressure continues to builds into the region. Winds will be out
of the southwest today at around 10 knots for the central and
western basins with waves at 1-3 feet. The eastern basin open waters
will see increased winds around 15-20 knots due to the southwesterly
flow and waves building to 3-5 feet. The near shore zones across the
lake will range from around a foot with winds at 5-10 knots in the
western and central basins to 1-3 feet with winds 10-15 knots in the
eastern basin.
Winds and waves will begin to subside late tonight into Wednesday,
diminishing to around 10 knots and 2 feet or less by Wednesday
afternoon. Light and variable winds are expected across Lake Erie
from Wednesday evening through Friday night. A cold front will
approach the region from the north with winds and waves building
Saturday into Sunday.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
OHZ003-006>011-017>019.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...23
MARINE...23
Source: CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 14, 1:37 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202607140537-KCLE-FXUS61-AFDCLE)
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