JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 13, 3:36 PM EDT
033
FXUS63 KJKL 131936
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
336 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated to scattered pop-up storms are possible this
afternoon, with the highest probability remaining near the
Tennessee border.
-Temperatures warm through next week, reaching the upper 80s to
around 90 degrees by Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 336 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
At 1930Z visible satellite showed a Cu field across much of the
surrounding area, while radar shows pop-up showers and
thunderstorms forming and moving east to west, primarily along and
south of the Hal Rogers/ Kentucky Highway 80 corridor. Other
showers have developed over West Virginia and are moving east into
Elliot county. Temperates currently range from the upper 70s in
areas across the southeast affected by convection, to the low to
mid 80s further north.
Low pressure presently sits in along the Alabama/Tennessee border.
This low, sits in a positively tilted trough whose axis extends
northeast into portions of Central and Eastern Kentucky, and back
into the Ohio Valley. PWAT ranges from 1.5 inches across the north
to 1.8 inches along the KY/TN border. Easterly winds wrapping
around the surface will usher in showers and storms through the late
afternoon and early evening, into an environment with 1000-1500 J/kg
of MLCAPE. Storms are progressive enough where they shouldn't cause
any additional flood concerns, though with 1.8 inch PWATs across the
Southeast, the flood threat does remain a small possibility. As such
the WPC has areas from Wayne to Pike counties in a Marginal Risk ERO
through tonight. These storms should tapper off by 8 PM this evening
across the CWA. Patchy areas of fog is expected to develop this
evening as temperatures cool into the low to mid 60s, with light and
variable winds and clearing skies.
Tuesday, height rises continue across the area, as a ridge of high
pressure builds into the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley. Temperatures
are expected to peak in the mid to upper 80s across Eastern
Kentucky, under mostly sunny skies and light easterly winds.
Tuesday evening, temperatures are expected to cool into the mid 60s
under mostly clear skies and near calm winds. Patchy areas of fog
may develop before mixing out early Wednesday morning.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 338 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
The long term period will open with troughing over the
northeastern CONUS and a strong 500mb high centered over the Upper
Midwest. Meanwhile, the vertically stacked low pressure system
responsible for this weekends active weather pattern will have
retreated to the southwest around the southern periphery of the
aforementioned high, landing in the vicinity of Mississippi and
Arkansas by the start of the period. At the surface, an area of
high pressure will be located across the Ohio Valley with ample
dry air. For Tuesday night, ideal radiative cooling conditions
will allow for a mild ridge/valley temperature split, with MOS
guidance suggesting temperatures will generally drop into the mid
60s for valley locations.
By midweek, the aforementioned 500 mb high will stretch eastward,
with the forecast area finding itself on the eastern periphery of
this ridging. Accordingly, high temperatures will rise above
average on Wednesday and Thursday, reaching into the upper 80s or
perhaps the low 90s. This pattern will also continue to suppress
convection, even as dewpoints begin to tick up, and rain chances
look to remain low across the forecast area. The potential
exception is again in our far southwestern counties, where an
afternoon storm or two cannot be ruled out. However, any rain
chances remain dependent on the positioning of ridging over the
forecast area.
Looking towards the weekend, upper level ridging will be
challenged as troughing digs into the eastern CONUS. Guidance has
been split regarding whether or not ridging will break down over
our area going into the weekend, but the latest 00z deterministic
guidance seems to be favoring the ridge breaking down locally by
Sunday. NBM PoPs have attempted to average these solutions and do
appear to be trending upward overall.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
Low stratus continues to thin out across eastern Kentucky at the
18Z TAF issuance with MVFR conditions. The low clouds should
continue to gradually lift into a VFR cumulus deck by mid
afternoon. Showers and storms are ongoing, and are forecast to
develop more this afternoon but mainly south of KJKL (most likely
at KLOZ, KSME, KBYL, KEKQ, KI35 and K1A6). The showers and storms
could bring gusty and erratic winds; as well as brief category
reductions. Outside of convection, winds are forecast to become
northeasterly at 10 kts or less during the daylight hours. Beyond
00Z light and variable winds are expected with VFR conditions.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...FAGAN/GEERTSON
AVIATION...GEERTSON/GINNICK
Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 13, 3:36 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202607131936-KJKL-FXUS63-AFDJKL)
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