IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 13, 1:31 AM EDT
842
FXUS63 KIND 130531
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
131 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Generally dry weather and a steady warming trend mid to late week
- Heat indices around 100 degrees on Wednesday
&&
.DISCUSSION (Today through Sunday)...
Issued at 131 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026
Anomalous ridging across the northern Great Plains is expected to
intensify as we head into the new week. Ensemble guidance shows
standard height deviations to 3 sigma above the mean. This ridge,
modeled to reach 600dm at times, should remain to our northwest. At
the surface, high pressure likewise situated to our northwest will
remain in place through about midweek.
Anomalous ridging would suggest a trend toward hot temperatures once
again, but this time looks to be a bit different compared to the
last heat wave. Namely, the surface high sitting just to our
northwest. Instead of southwesterly flow at the surface we will have
northeasterly flow much of the time through Wednesday. This will act
to limit warm air and moisture advection. Nevertheless, a warming
trend is still expected simply due to the proximity of the strong
ridge.
An upper-level low sitting just to our south as of this writing (the
system that brought all the rain yesterday). It will slide westward
this week around the broad anticyclonic flow of the larger-scale
ridge. This should have minimal impacts, due to continued
northeasterly flow at the surface. However, a few showers and
thunderstorms may be possible at times over far southern Indiana
this week as it skirts by to our south. Whether these make it into
our southern CWA remains to be seen, but the probability appears
very low.
From Wednesday onward, high pressure at the surface begins to weaken
and overall flow becomes light and variable. Models show moisture
beginning to accumulate within the boundary layer, and a return to
70 degree dew points appears likely. Additionally, guidance shows
the ridge break down a bit while shifting westward. Ensemble
guidance is split regarding a backdoor cold front possibly arriving
on Thursday as a result of the ridge shifting west. As such, high
temperatures and dew points have a higher uncertainty around this
time.
There is a signal for increased convective potential this weekend.
Aloft, guidance shows northwesterly flow returning to the Great
Lakes region. Guidance diverges even more by this point, with some
deterministic models showing surface low pressure passing just to
our north with numerous showers and thunderstorms. Others show a
weaker low farther into Canada with minimal impacts. We will carry
slight to chance PoPs for now to account for this uncertainty.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 131 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026
Impacts:
- None.
Discussion:
Outside of a low chance for brief fog around 12Z, VFR conditions
expected through the TAF period with northeasterly winds of 7-12kts
after 16Z. There could be a few gusts up to 19kts, but this should
remain infrequent enough to not warrant a mention in the TAF at this
time. Skies will be mostly clear through the period with diurnally
driven cu around 050 from 16Z to 00Z.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
AVIATION...White
DISCUSSION...Eckhoff
Source: IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 13, 1:31 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202607130531-KIND-FXUS63-AFDIND)
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