Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #681 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
468
AWUS01 KWNH 120544
FFGMPD
VAZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-121045-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0681
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
142 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026
Areas affected...Portions of the OH Valley
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 120542Z - 121045Z
SUMMARY...Locally slow-moving bands of heavy showers and
thunderstorms are expected to continue over the next several
hours. High rainfall rates and locally sensitive antecedent
conditions will support a continued threat for some areas of flash
flooding.
DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E Proxy Visible satellite imagery
along with surface observations continue to show a slow-moving low
to mid-level trough/low center over the OH Valley with an
attendant frontal zone draped generally west to east across the
region. Scattered bands of heavy showers and thunderstorms
continue to focus near this front, and the latest radar imagery
shows some of the better concentrations of this activity across
areas of northwest and central KY.
Instability is modest with MUCAPE values of 500 to 1000 J/kg, but
the airmass is very moist with PWs of 1.75 to 2.0 inches. Some
pockets of modest low-level moisture convergence are noted near
the front and this surface low center that is situated across
western KY. That coupled with modest deeper layer ascent
associated with the mid-level energy over the region should tend
to maintain a relatively disorganized, but locally persistent area
of heavy showers and thunderstorms.
Rainfall rates should continue to be as high as 1 to 2 inches/hour
with some of the stronger convective cores, and some additional
spotty 3+ inch totals will be possible going through dawn. The
antecedent conditions are generally rather moist and locally
sensitive, and therefore these additional rains may foster some
additional concerns for flash flooding over the next several hours.
Orrison
...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...MRX...PAH...RLX...
ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...
LAT...LON 38448412 38248303 37808244 37268245 36938303
36878406 37078568 37368655 37848686 38238636
38408528
Source: Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #681 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE (https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=681&yr=2026)
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