CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 11, 1:30 PM EDT
288
FXUS61 KCLE 111730
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
130 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes as the forecast remains on track.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Patchy fog possible for areas along and east of the I-71 corridor
with low end chances for precipitation through Saturday evening.
2) High pressure builds into the region on Sunday with dry weather
and above average temperatures likely through next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to taper off across Western
Ohio over the next few hours as the frontal boundary to drifts to
the south. With plenty of low level moisture due to the
precipitation today and calm winds overnight, there will be
potential for patchy fog to develop across the region. Generally,
areas along and to the east of the I-71 corridor could see fog this
morning with increasing probability further east. Youngstown and
sites just across the boarder into Pennsylvania are already seeing
visibility drop down to less than half a mile. Will continue to
monitor trends over the coming hours to see how widespread fog may
develop. By mid morning, any fog should clear out and conditions
will improve.
The frontal boundary across the Ohio Valley will have more upper
level support this afternoon as a vort max moves west to east
through the region. This will bring low end precipitation chances
mainly to areas south of US Route 30. Isolated nuisance flooding is
possible in some of the stronger storms due to the slow storm
motion, but the better probability will be to the south. As the
upper level support moves off to the east, precipitation chances
will decrease into the evening to be dry by tonight.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A strong upper level ridge will begin to build across Central CONUS
on Sunday with surface high pressure building across the Great
Lakes. Flow across the region will be fairly weak through Monday,
but will shift to be out of the west by Tuesday and temperatures
will increase to be above average for the middle of the week. Given
the placement of the ridge, there won't be as much moisture being
pulled up north, so dew points should stay lower compared to last
week limiting elevated heat indices. Regardless, probabilistic heat
risk increases into the major category for portion of the region
starting Tuesday as heat indices will still climb into the mid 90s.
Concurrently, a trough will develop across Eastern Canada and CONUS
that will bring west-northwesterly flow across the Eastern Great
Lakes. Unlikely to bring any precipitation to the region, it may
assist in keeping temperatures down a few degrees across Eastern
Ohio into Pennsylvania.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
Scattered showers, mainly along and south of US-30, are expected
to develop and push south across southern terminals
(KFDY/KMFD/KCAK) between 18Z/Sat and 22Z/Sat. Maintained TSRA TEMPOs
for those terminals this afternoon and evening. Still can't rule
out patchy fog developing overnight tonight at sites where
rainfall occurs, but not enough confidence to put in the TAF at
this time.
Northeast winds 8-12 knots this afternoon and evening will
diminish to 5 knots or less tonight. Northeast winds will again
increase to 8-12 knots late Sunday morning.
Outlook...Non-VFR in patchy fog possible early Monday morning.
Non-VFR possible on Thursday in showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.MARINE...
Choppy conditions expected for the remainder of today through
Sunday as northeast winds around 15 knots will allow for wave
heights to build to 2-4 feet in the central basin. A moderate
risk of rip currents remains across the central basin through
Sunday evening. Swimming is discouraged.
High pressure builds over the Great Lakes region for next week
leading to improving marine conditions. Light and variable
winds on Monday become southwest by Tuesday as high pressure
exits to the east. Southwest winds 10-15 knots turn west on
Wednesday with wave heights building to 2-3 feet in the eastern
basin.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...13
MARINE...13
Source: CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 11, 1:30 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202607111730-KCLE-FXUS61-AFDCLE)
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