IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 10, 10:18 PM EDT
487
FXUS63 KIND 110218
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1018 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Continued threats for thunderstorms with heavy rain and possibly
localized flooding through Saturday; an isolated strong storm
with damaging winds cannot be ruled out
- Warmer and drier again next week, though with more modest humidity
than experienced the first week of the month
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1018 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026
Slow moving showers and thunderstorms continue across our northern
counties with some flooding concerns ongoing near Lafayette. Still
monitoring storms to the west and trends in hi-res models for
overnight convection. Still expecting our SW to see the bulk of
these overnight storms but scattered storms are possible elsewhere.
Luckily, increasingly becoming less concerned with the severe
threat, outside of a few strong to severe wind gusts, and additional
flooding concerns. Models show the line of storms weakening as they
move into central Indiana and that they heaviest rain should stay
just to the south.
Forecast was in pretty good shape but did update PoPs and temps to
better match current observations.
&&
.DISCUSSION (This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 236 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026
Rest of This Afternoon...
Scattered convection will continue to develop this afternoon,
especially north along and ahead of a slow moving front. Will have
chance PoPs north half or so for these and slight chance PoPs south
where there is less forcing for convection. The main threats from
storms this afternoon will be locally heavy rain and resultant
flooding. However, gusty winds are also possible.
Tonight and Saturday...
Uncertainty is higher than usual tonight with uncertainties in
smaller scale upper forcing.
Convection along the boundary near the northern forecast area will
likely diminish some this evening as heating is lost. Additional
convection will move in later this evening and/or overnight as
pieces of upper energy (and a potential MCV), with the focus on the
southern forecast area. CAMs all have differing solutions in timing
and coverage of the convection, which adds to the higher uncertainty
for PoPs.
Given the uncertainty in the forcing, will keep PoPs mainly in the
chance category. Will go highest across the south where the best
upper energy should move through. Will time the highest PoPs after
midnight, but details beyond that are quite uncertain.
Forcing will continue into Saturday morning, and some interaction
will occur with the old surface front across the northern forecast
area. Will go with chance category PoPs most areas. Saturday
afternoon, the boundary will sink south, allowing chances for rain
to diminish north but continue south.
The potential MCV moving in tonight into Saturday will increase
shear across mainly the southern forecast area. This might be
enough for an isolated severe storm with damaging winds.
Lows tonight will be in the middle 60s to around 70 with highs on
Saturday in the mid 80s.
Sunday...
A large upper high will exert its influence across the far northern
forecast area and will keep that area dry. However, an upper trough
will still be close enough to the remainder of the area to keep
some chance PoPs around, mainly during the afternoon when heating is
maximized.
Monday through Wednesday...
The upper high will expand and increase its influence across central
Indiana during this period. This will bring increasingly warmer
temperatures to the area. Highs in the upper 80s on Monday will give
way to mainly lower 90s by Wednesday. Dewpoints will also rise,
reaching the 70s most areas by Wednesday. Resultant heat indices
will peak in the middle to perhaps upper 90s.
The far south will remain close enough to the old upper trough on
Monday to keep some low PoPs around. Will keep Tuesday and Wednesday
dry with stronger influence from the high, but cannot rule out an
isolated storm in the heat of the day.
Thursday and beyond...
Uncertainty is high on when the upper high will break down some and
allow upper forcing to return to the area. This may start on
Thursday into Friday. Will have some low PoPs around with below
average confidence.
Temperatures will be slightly cooler with highs mainly in the upper
80s.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 812 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026
Impacts:
- Scattered convection at times through through the night which
could linger into the morning
- MVFR visibilities in fog possible at most sites overnight with
MVFR ceilings not out of the question within showers and storms
Discussion:
Showers and storms are expected overnight. Storms are already
ongoing at LAF at the start of the period with additional storms
possible between 06z and 12z at all other sites. Lowered ceilings
and vis, near and into MVFR, are possible within storms. Fog will
also be possible prior to daybreak which could lead to MVFR
visibilities as well.
Winds will largely be light and variable overnight outside of higher
gusts in storms. By tomorrow, wind direction will be predominately
out of the ENE and generally less than 7 kt.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KF
AVIATION...KF
DISCUSSION...50
Source: IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 10, 10:18 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202607110218-KIND-FXUS63-AFDIND)
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