ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 10, 6:48 AM EDT
984
FXUS61 KILN 101048
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
648 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and some thunderstorms will move across the region early
this morning. Additional showers and storms may move in from the
north late this afternoon into the evening, primarily near and north
of I-70.
2) A boundary will sag south across the region Saturday into Saturday
evening as low pressure tracks along it. This will result in more
showers and storms, with locally heavy rainfall possible that could
lead to flooding.
3) Drier and warmer conditions for next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)
Short wave across the area will continue east early this morning
taking showers and embedded thunderstorms with it. MCV will track
across Kentucky through the day. There is some potential for showers
and thunderstorms on the northern edge of that to affect far southern
counties.
The focus will then shift north. A west-east oriented boundary will
be sagging southwards this afternoon and continue into the area
tonight. However, there is some spread in model guidance with the
position and movement of the boundary. Showers and storms will
develop near this boundary with areas from west central to central
Ohio have the greatest probability of being affected, possibly as
early as mid afternoon and extending into the evening. There is
potential for locally heavy rainfall as precipitable water will still
be 1.6 to 1.8 inches. Some activity, in a diminishing phase, may
continue to push south into the overnight. In addition, there may be
decaying remnants of an MCS moving into the area late, although that
is quite uncertain.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
West-east boundary extending across the area, most likely somewhere
between I-70 and the Ohio River to start the day Saturday, will
continue its southward trek through the day. Consensus is that this
will clear the forecast area by Saturday evening, although there are
some model solutions that are slower than that. Showers and
thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity with diurnal
heating and the approach of a short wave and associated surface low.
Precipitable water will be 1.8 to 2.0 inches and the warm cloud depth
will still be substantial which are favorable conditions for
efficient rain rates that can lead to locally heavy rainfall.
Depending on the speed of the boundary, this could linger into
Saturday evening in far southern counties.
KEY MESSAGE 3)
Expansive, anomalously strong (around 3 sigma) mid level ridge
centered over the northern Plains will extend eastward into the
region for the early to mid part of next week. This will bring dry
conditions and warmer temperatures. Highs will push into the upper
80s to lower 90s, with a few locations even into the mid 90s by
Wednesday, which looks to be the warmest day at this stage. However,
probability of heat indices reaching advisory threshold remain low.
A large long wave trough over eastern Canada spreading into the
northeast US will suppress the ridge heading into the latter part of
the week, although there is spread in guidance with how quickly this
occurs. But the consensus is that there will be lower heights by
Thursday and thus temperatures not quite as warm as Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR ceilings will affect all but the Columbus terminals for the
first several hours of the TAF period. Clouds will lift and scatter
towards 18Z. Showers and storms pushing south may affect KCMH/KLCK
after 23Z and even into KDAY after 02Z. There is also the possibility
of showers and storms moving in from the west to impact the
Cincinnati terminals late in the period. MVFR visibilities may
develop in the Columbus area late.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible into Saturday night. MVFR
ceilings and visibilities possible into Saturday morning.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for OHZ073-074-078>082-088.
KY...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for KYZ089>100.
IN...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for INZ075-080.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...35
Source: ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 10, 6:48 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202607101048-KILN-FXUS61-AFDILN)
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